Monday, May 25, 2026

NYSE, Nasdaq, and US bond markets are closed full session for Memorial Day. Next trading day: Tuesday, May 26, 2026. This report covers all developments from Friday May 22's close through Monday's holiday session and sets up the Tuesday open.

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1. Holiday Context

Holiday: Memorial Day — Monday, May 25, 2026
Scope: NYSE full close. Nasdaq full close. SIFMA-recommended bond market full close (note: bond market also closed early at 2:00 PM ET on Friday May 22). Federal Reserve banking holiday — ACH, FedWire, and Fedwire Securities services suspended. No settlement activity.

Previous trading day (Friday, May 22) cash close:

Tone of Friday's session: Firmly bullish with broadening participation. Health Care and Technology each gained ~1%. The Dow setting a new all-time record close heading into a holiday weekend is a constructive signal — the kind of print that historically precedes a positive reopening. The S&P 500 completed its eighth consecutive weekly gain, with Iran deal proximity and a blockbuster NVIDIA earnings report the week's dominant narratives. Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House on Friday generated headlines but no market shock — his prepared remarks were measured and procedural. VIX at 16.70 reflects the market pricing complacency rather than fear into a potential deal weekend.

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2. Friday → Weekend → Monday Developments

Friday May 22 After-Hours and Close

• Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the White House East Room, oath administered by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. He replaced Jerome Powell, who led the Fed since 2018. Warsh immediately faces a hawkish internal FOMC with officials "doubling down" on no cuts — his first press conference is June 17.
• Iran deal framing: Oil closed slightly higher on Friday as the Reuters-reported Qatar mediation effort failed to produce a signed document before the weekend. The Strait remained physically closed (~3–5 ships/day vs. 120–140 normal flow).
• Gas prices: US retail gasoline prices were at their highest level in nearly four years ahead of Memorial Day weekend, driven by Hormuz disruption to Gulf crude flows.
• NVIDIA (confirmed): Q1 FY2027 results (reported Tue May 20) fully digested — $81.6B revenue (+85% YoY), Data Center $75.2B (+92%), $1.87 non-GAAP EPS, $91B Q2 guidance, $80B buyback authorization, dividend raised from $0.01 to $0.25 per share. Stock fell approximately 1.5–1.8% AH on "sell the news" but provided the week's gravitational floor. Across 472 S&P 500 reporters: 82% bottom-line beat, 74% top-line beat, EPS growth +27.49% YoY.

Weekend May 23–24

• Iran deal structure confirmed (Axios, May 24 exclusive): The draft MOU involves a 60-day ceasefire extension; the Strait reopens over 30 days; Iran may freely sell oil; Iran commits to never pursuing nuclear weapons and to negotiate suspension of uranium enrichment and removal of highly enriched uranium stockpile. The US would negotiate sanctions relief and unfreezing of Iranian funds — but only implementable upon a final verifiably-implemented agreement.
• Unresolved sticking points preventing weekend signing: (1) Hormuz sovereignty — Trump says strait reopens under MOU; Iranian state media close to IRGC reports the strait remains under Iranian supervision, a direct contradiction; (2) Enriched uranium — Iran's Supreme Leader ordered the stockpile to remain inside Iran, complicating custody provisions; (3) Sanctions timing — sequencing dispute.
• Secretary of State Rubio (in India on Sunday) called the US proposal "pretty solid" and said Washington was awaiting Tehran's response. Qatar dispatched a negotiating team to Tehran to help close the gap.
• Trump statement (Saturday, May 23): Deal on Hormuz is "largely negotiated"; blockade remains in full force until signed.
• Israel opposition: Senior Israeli officials publicly called the emerging agreement "bad" — arguing Iran demonstrated the Strait of Hormuz as leverage equivalent to a nuclear weapon, with no Israeli security concerns addressed. Israel's opposition is the most significant geopolitical wildcard for final signing.

Monday May 25 (Memorial Day — US markets closed)

• Arlington Cemetery: President Trump honored US service members at Arlington National Cemetery, including 13 service members lost in Operation Epic Fury (the Iran war). War Secretary Pete Hegseth also spoke at Arlington.
• US military strikes on Iran: The US military conducted "self-defense strikes" against Iranian missile launch sites and boats attempting to emplace mines near Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran. A Pentagon spokesman described the action as "using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire." The strikes did not trigger a ceasefire breakdown per official statements, but Iran accused Washington of "obstruction." The April 8 ceasefire framework technically remained in force.
• Trump (Monday): Said Iran talks were "proceeding nicely." Rubio reiterated awaiting Tehran's response.
• WTI crude: Tumbled nearly 6% to below $91/barrel on deal optimism and reduced Monday liquidity — the largest single-session drop since the Iran conflict began, driven by market front-running of a Hormuz reopening.
• Equity futures: S&P 500 futures broke above 7,500 on Monday's limited electronic session — Dow futures gained 319 points (+0.63%), S&P 500 futures +0.65%, Nasdaq-100 futures +0.87%.
• Asia (Monday session, US holiday): Indian markets were open and rallied strongly; Korean markets were closed (Buddha's Birthday substitute holiday); Japanese markets surged to a historic all-time high (Nikkei +2.87% to 65,158); Hong Kong was separately closed (HK public holiday on Monday).

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3. Next-Trading-Day Open Outlook

Sunday 6 PM ET Futures (Estimated vs. Actual Monday Drift)

Note: CME equity futures halted at approximately 12:00 PM CT on Monday and reopened at 5:00 PM CT for the Tuesday May 26 trade date. The levels below reflect the Monday electronic session and the 5 PM CT reopen.

Key driver for Tuesday open: Iran deal optimism has moved oil decisively lower (-6% WTI to sub-$91), which acts as a direct positive input for consumer discretionary, airlines, transportation, and tech margins. S&P 500 futures printing above 7,500 ATH territory sets up a gap-higher Tuesday open if no ceasefire breakdown occurs overnight Tuesday.

Treasury market: Cash bonds closed Monday (Fed settlement holiday). 10-year Treasury futures trade on CME. Friday cash close was 4.56% on the 10-year. Warsh's first FOMC meeting (June 16–17) is priced at 97.2% probability hold; CME FedWatch shows ~70% probability of a rate hike by December — the hawkish yield floor supports 10Y staying 4.45–4.65% through June absent a deal-driven risk-off spike.

Tuesday open risk: Any headline of Iran retaliating against Monday's US strikes could reverse futures sharply. The ceasefire is legally in force but tactically contested.

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4. Asia Setup (2 trading sessions to digest)

US holiday provided Asian markets an uninterrupted 2-session window (Monday + Tuesday early) to process the Iran deal news, the Memorial Day military strikes, and the oil sell-off.

Monday May 25 (Asian markets open, US closed)

India as Memorial Day's biggest equity winner: India is one of the world's largest oil importers. WTI dropping below $91/barrel directly reduces India's import bill and current account deficit pressure. The Sensex +1.42% on Memorial Day reflects this structural oil-price transmission channel.

Tuesday May 26 Early Trade (Overnight into US open)

KOSPI standout: South Korea's index surged to an all-time high above 8,000 on Tuesday morning — a combination of Samsung's resolved labor dispute, robust semiconductor demand (Nvidia's blowout confirming the AI capex cycle), and Iran deal optimism de-risking global supply chains. The KOSPI move amplifies the positive pre-market signal heading into the US open.

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5. Commodities

Energy (CME limited holiday hours; primary price discovery via Asian benchmarks)

Oil interpretation: The sub-$91 WTI print on a holiday with reduced liquidity is not a full-market consensus print — Monday's move was amplified by thin CME holiday session volumes. The actual Tuesday cash open will be the first full-market test. If WTI holds below $93 on Tuesday's re-open, the deal trade is confirmed.

Metals and Alternative Assets

Gold interpretation: Gold remains range-bound above $4,500 — the war premium has partially deflated on deal optimism but gold is not collapsing because (1) Warsh hawkish pivot is uncertain, (2) Hormuz still physically closed, (3) Iran's Supreme Leader's enriched uranium demand is unresolved. A signed final deal could push gold to $4,400–4,450.

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6. Next Trading Day Calendar

Economic Data (all times ET)

Consumer Confidence is the Tuesday marquee print. The Conference Board's measure (92.8 prior) has historically diverged from UMich sentiment (44.8 record low in May). If CB Confidence breaks below 90 toward the UMich signal, Tuesday's risk rally fades. If it holds near 92–93, the divergence continues and bears struggle to make their case.

Note on holiday data displacement: No regular weekly releases (jobless claims, etc.) are pushed from Monday to Tuesday — the holiday falls on Monday, and Thursday claims will release on schedule. No displacement effect.

Earnings

Before Market Open (BMO):
| Ticker | Company | Consensus EPS | Revenue Est | Quarter |
|--------|---------|--------------|------------|---------|
| AZO | AutoZone | $36.13 | $4.86B | Q3 FY2026 |

AutoZone (AZO) is a proxy for the US consumer and for the DIY auto-parts market. With gas prices at 4-year highs and consumer sentiment at record lows, a beat here signals resilience in the "fix it yourself" economy. EPS range: $34.92–$38.05 across 22 analysts.

After Market Close (AH):
| Ticker | Company | Consensus EPS | Revenue Est | Quarter |
|--------|---------|--------------|------------|---------|
| ZS | Zscaler | $1.01 | ~$836M | Q3 FY2026 |

Zscaler (ZS) is a pure-play cybersecurity bellwether. 40 upward analyst revisions in the past 3 months with zero downward adjustments — a strong consensus skew. Enterprise AI workloads are expanding attack surfaces; Zscaler is a direct beneficiary. A beat here supports cloud/cyber plays ahead of Salesforce and Marvell.

Fed Speakers / Central Bank Events

• Kevin Warsh has no scheduled public appearance on Tuesday May 26. Though not yet in the formal FOMC blackout period (which begins June 6), Warsh has maintained voluntary public silence ahead of his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17.
• Watch for any Fed regional presidents who might speak before the quiet period window tightens.

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7. Short Week Ahead

Trading sessions remaining this week: 4 (Tuesday May 26 through Friday May 29)

The short week compresses positioning dynamics — what would normally be spread across 5 sessions is squeezed into 4, with Friday representing the last close before a full "normal" week. End-of-week effects arrive one day early.

The PCE print on Thursday May 28 is the week's most consequential macro event. April PCE is Warsh's first reading as Chair and directly sets the table for the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. Consensus for core PCE April YoY is ~2.6–2.8%. A hot print (>2.9%) reinforces the CME FedWatch ~70% rate hike probability by December and spooks the market rally. A cool print (<2.5%) reopens the rate cut debate and extends the equity bid.

Wednesday's Marvell earnings (MRVL) are the AI hardware bellwether for the week — custom ASIC AI data center chips for Amazon (Trainium) are MRVL's confirmed growth engine; Marvell is also in active negotiations with Google on a potential TPU programme (no supply agreement signed as of May 2026). With NVDA's $91B Q2 guide confirming AI capex acceleration, MRVL is positioned for a strong print. Consensus: ~$0.80 EPS, ~$2.40B revenue.

Thursday's Costco (COST) rounds out the consumer read — Q3 FY2026 follows a Q2 EPS of $4.58 (beat $4.55) and revenue of $69.6B (+9.1% YoY). With inflation elevated and consumer sentiment record low, Costco's traffic data and membership renewal rates are signals for the quality-over-quantity consumer trade.

Friday-effect intensified: With only 4 sessions, institutional re-balancing, options gamma expiry positioning, and end-of-month flows (May 29 = month-end) all cluster into Friday. The final Friday of May typically sees elevated volume and volatility vs. a normal mid-month Friday.

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8. Strategy Signals

All strategies below are public AskMelon strategies. No internal hedge fund signals are referenced.

Oil & Geopolitics Rotation:
WTI dropping below $91 on Iran deal optimism is the defining macro signal of Memorial Day. The warflation_hedge setup — long energy, defense, gold, short tech — faces a structural challenge if the Hormuz deal is signed. The mirror trade, oil_down_tech_up, activates fully: airlines, consumer discretionary, and tech benefit directly from sub-$90 oil. Monday's pre-market ES/NQ futures action (+0.65%/+0.87%) confirms the rotation is underway.

Geopolitical Risk Positioning:
The US military strikes on Iranian positions on Memorial Day — even framed as "self-defense" — introduce a tail risk that the geopolitical_crisis strategy prices. As long as the April 8 ceasefire remains formally intact, this is asymmetric upside on a peace deal rather than a breakdown scenario. Watch for Iran's formal response: if Tehran characterizes Monday's strikes as a ceasefire violation, the risk-reward inverts sharply.

AI Infrastructure Cycle:
NVIDIA's $81.6B blowout and $91B Q2 guide have reset AI capex expectations sharply higher. This benefits nvidia_supply_chain, ai_infra_picks_shovels, and semiconductor_value in sequence. Marvell's Wednesday print (custom ASIC AI chips for Amazon Trainium; Google TPU negotiations ongoing) will confirm or challenge whether the AI capex cycle has staying power beyond NVDA itself.

Volatility and Momentum:
VIX at 16.68 on Monday's holiday session reflects Memorial Day complacency. The vix_mean_reversion framework suggests VIX in the 14–16 range is the natural range for a fully-priced AI bull market with a pending geopolitical catalyst. Eight consecutive SPX weekly gains argue for momentum_crash_hedge vigilance — not because momentum is broken but because crash-hedge positioning is cheapest precisely when everyone has forgotten to hedge.

Bond and Rate Positioning:
10-year at 4.56% with Warsh's first FOMC showing 97.2% hold probability and ~70% December hike odds makes bond_duration_trade a high-conviction short-duration position. The yield_curve_inversion dynamic remains relevant — Warsh's hawkish inheritance from an already-hawkish FOMC could steepen the curve on rate hike risk even while the front end stays pinned. The crisis_rotation framework is the contingency: if Iran peace deal collapses, expect rapid flow from tech/consumer into energy/defense/gold.

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9. Scenarios (A / B / C)

Scenario A — Bullish: Deal Signed, Oil Collapses (Probability: 30%)

Trigger: Iran formally accepts the US MOU during Monday night / Tuesday pre-market. A signed document is announced before 9:30 AM ET Tuesday. WTI gaps to $83–87. Hormuz reopens on 30-day schedule.

Market response: ES gaps to 7,550–7,600, clearing ATH with volume. NQ surges 1.2–1.5%. Airlines (UAL, AAL, DAL) +5–8%. XLE -5%+. KOSPI holds 8,000+ and becomes the global poster child for peace-dividend equity rallies. VIX collapses to 13–14. Gold drops to $4,400–4,450. Bitcoin tests $80,000. Consumer confidence rebounds toward 95–97 in subsequent readings.

Relevant strategies: oil_down_tech_up, crisis_rotation, vix_spike_buyback (retroactive)

Scenario B — Bearish: Military Escalation / Ceasefire Breakdown (Probability: 20%)

Trigger: Iran characterizes Monday's US strikes as a material ceasefire violation and retaliates. Hormuz mine deployment escalates. Trump invokes force escalation. IRGC announces formal ceasefire suspension.

Market response: ES gaps down 1.5–2.5% to 7,290–7,360. WTI spikes to $105–110+. VIX surges to 22–26. Gold rallies to $4,600+. Tech and consumer discretionary sell off; energy, defense, gold inflows. 10-year yields initially drop on flight to quality, then spike on inflation re-pricing. Tuesday Consumer Confidence print becomes irrelevant.

Relevant strategies: warflation_hedge, geopolitical_crisis, crisis_alpha, gold_bug

Scenario C — Range: Procedural Impasse, Ceasefire Holds (Probability: 50%)

Trigger: Deal stalls on enriched uranium custody and Hormuz sovereignty language. The April 8 ceasefire remains technically in force. Rubio and Iranian counterparts continue shuttle diplomacy. Monday's military strikes are characterized by both sides as a "contained incident."

Market response: ES opens +0.4–0.6% on reopening momentum and Iran-deal-optionality then fades to flat-to-slight-positive by mid-session. WTI stabilizes $88–93 (holding Monday's drop but not extending). VIX drifts 15.5–16.5. Consumer Confidence becomes the dominant Tuesday driver. AutoZone's BMO sets the consumer tone. Zscaler AH drives tech micro-story into Wednesday's Marvell/Salesforce double-header.

Relevant strategies: momentum_crash_hedge, vix_mean_reversion, bond_duration_trade

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The Week Ahead in One Paragraph

The week of May 26 is the most compressed and consequential of Q2: Tuesday reopens with Iran deal uncertainty fully priced into a sub-$91 WTI and an S&P 500 at ATH trajectory — the first full-market test of whether Memorial Day's deal optimism survives the Iran ceasefire's contested ground, the US military's Monday strikes, and Tehran's pending formal response. Wednesday concentrates two of the week's highest-impact AI earnings — Marvell (custom ASIC AI silicon for hyperscalers) and Salesforce (enterprise AI monetization bellwether) — on a single after-hours session that will set the forward narrative for AI capex believers and skeptics alike. Thursday delivers the week's macro verdict: April Core PCE at 8:30 AM ET is Chair Warsh's first inflation reading in office, arriving 3 weeks before his inaugural FOMC press conference, and a hot print shifts the probability-weighted path from hold toward hike by December. Costco's Thursday AH result provides the consumer durability datapoint the market needs to determine whether UMich's record-low 44.8 sentiment is a leading indicator of spending collapse or a lagging sentiment artifact that consumer behavior is contradicting. The four-session week closes Friday May 29 on month-end flows, compressed re-balancing, and a geopolitical cliff that keeps options vol elevated — the Iran deal either provides a historic peace dividend by then, or the market carries the tail risk into June with Warsh's FOMC as the next major event horizon.

Sources

• NYSE Holiday Schedule — NYSE.com
• Stock Market Holidays 2026 — AARP
• US Markets Pause for Memorial Day — Seeking Alpha
• SIFMA Holiday Schedule — SIFMA.org
• Federal Reserve Holiday Schedule — FRBServices.org
• Stock Market Today May 22, 2026 — TheStreet
• S&P 500 Posts Eighth Straight Week of Gains — Motley Fool
• Kevin Warsh Sworn In as Federal Reserve Chairman — Breitbart
• Kevin Warsh Sworn In as New Fed Chair — NPR
• What's Inside the Iran Deal Trump Is Close to Signing — Axios
• US, Iran Closing in on One-Page Memo to End War — Axios
• Trump Says Iran Deal Reopening Strait of Hormuz 'Largely Negotiated' — CNBC
• US Military Conducts Strikes Against Targets in Iran — NBC News
• US Renews Strikes on Iran — Washington Post
• US Military Strikes Iran as Trump Says Negotiations Move Forward — NPR
• US-Iran War Live News — Fox News
• Dow Futures Jump 300 Points as Oil Tumbles on Iran Deal Hope — CNBC
• S&P 500 Blasts Above 7,500 as Iran Strait Deal Hopes Crush Oil Prices — 24/7 Wall St.
• Asia Markets Today: Sensex, Kospi, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Iran, Oil — CNBC
• Sensex Falls 264 pts, Nifty Below 24,000 — BusinessToday
• Crude Oil Price Prediction May 25, 2026 — Univest.in
• Gold Price May 22, 2026 — Fortune
• Treasury Yields Snapshot May 22, 2026 — Advisor Perspectives
• NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings — SEC Form 8-K
• Nvidia Earnings May 2026 — Kiplinger
• Kevin Warsh's First Test Arrives June 17 — Motley Fool
• Wall Street Has Written Off Fed Rate Cut at Warsh's First Meeting — Fortune
• CB Consumer Confidence Among Economic Data Due Tuesday — Investing.com
• AutoZone Q3 2026 Preview — Alphastreet
• Zscaler Sets May 26 Earnings Release — StockTitan
• DJIA Week Ahead: Marvell, Salesforce, Costco and PCE Data in Focus — ForeignPolicyJournal
• Salesforce Earnings Date May 27, 2026 — MarketBeat
• Costco Earnings After Close May 28, 2026 — TipRanks
• PCE Release Schedule May 28, 2026 — BEA
• Iran War Gas Prices Highest in 4 Years — CNBC

Disclaimer

This report is produced for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data cited reflects information available as of market close Friday May 22, 2026 and Monday holiday session May 25, 2026. Market conditions and geopolitical developments (particularly Iran negotiations) may have changed materially before Tuesday's open. Futures estimates are indicative only. Past performance of any strategy referenced is not indicative of future results. All strategy links reference public AskMelon strategies; no internal hedge fund positions, paper trades, or private signals are referenced herein. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.