TLT/SHY ratio proxy for yield curve: go defensive on flattening
Yield Curve Inversion Signal
| Symbol | Action | Vol | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Size | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | BUY | 13% | 7.1% below entry | 4.9% above entry | 25.7% | TVYH |
| GLD | BUY | 23% | 12.9% below entry | 8.9% above entry | 14.1% | TVYH |
| IEF | BUY | 6% | 6.7% below entry | 4.6% above entry | 27.1% | TVYH |
| SPY | BUY | 17% | 9.7% below entry | 6.6% above entry | 18.9% | TVYH |
| XLP | BUY | 13% | 7.3% below entry | 5.0% above entry | 24.9% | TVYH |
| XLV | BUY | 15% | 8.7% below entry | 5.9% above entry | 21.0% | TVYH |
| XLU | BUY | 16% | 8.9% below entry | 6.1% above entry | 20.6% | TVYH |
This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -21% drawdown to return 105% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.