Gold Bug

Gold/silver/miners as recession and inflation hedge

Gold Bug (Precious Metals)

Total Return

+94.4%

Sharpe Ratio

1.13

Max Drawdown

-18.9%

Win Rate

52.9%

Alpha

+1.8%

Comp. Score *

0.16

Risk Parameters

Max Allocation11.0%

Stop Loss15.0%

Take Profit10.0%

Max DD Tolerance18.9%

Rebalanceweekly

Execution Guidance

Order TypeLimit

Entry RuleAlways hold some. Add more when SPY breaks below SMA200.

TimingSAFE TO BUY. *

ScalingMaintain 5-15% allocation. Add during fear, trim during euphoria.

Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing

Symbol	Action	Vol	Stop Loss	Take Profit	Size	Links
GLD	BUY	23%	14.4% below entry	9.6% above entry	11.4%	TV YH
GDX	BUY	40%	25.1% below entry	16.6% above entry	6.6%	TV YH
SLV	BUY	46%	29.2% below entry	19.4% above entry	5.6%	TV YH
NEM	BUY	41%	25.9% below entry	17.2% above entry	6.3%	TV YH

▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -26% drawdown to return 105% long-term. - Exit rule: Never fully exit gold — it is insurance. Trim if gold exceeds 20% of portfolio.

Avg 5Y Return

55.0%

Avg 5Y Sharpe

0.38

10Y Return

104.7%

10Y Sharpe

0.29

HODL Composite

0.34

Consistency

75%

Suitable for passive