War/crisis beneficiaries: energy + defense spike when vol rises
Geopolitical Crisis Alpha 4Y (2022-2025)
| Symbol | Action | Vol | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Size | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVN | BUY | 37% | 38.5% below entry | 7.7% above entry | 2.4% | TVYH |
| XLE | BUY | 23% | 23.8% below entry | 4.8% above entry | 3.9% | TVYH |
| HAL | BUY | 39% | 40.0% below entry | 8.1% above entry | 2.3% | TVYH |
| NOC | BUY | 26% | 26.9% below entry | 5.4% above entry | 3.4% | TVYH |
| RTX | BUY | 25% | 26.1% below entry | 5.2% above entry | 3.5% | TVYH |
| GLD | BUY | 23% | 24.1% below entry | 4.8% above entry | 3.8% | TVYH |
| SLV | BUY | 46% | 40.0% below entry | 9.8% above entry | 1.9% | TVYH |
| LMT | BUY | 25% | 26.4% below entry | 5.3% above entry | 3.5% | TVYH |
| ITA | BUY | 21% | 22.3% below entry | 4.5% above entry | 4.1% | TVYH |
This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires more active monitoring than a pure passive approach. Entry: Wait for a pullback before entering. Buy in 3 tranches over 2-4 weeks to average your entry price. Rebalance: Check monthly. This strategy is more volatile and needs closer attention. Exit rules: - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -32% drawdown to return 26% over the long term. Stopping out would have locked in losses. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if the strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years with no clear reason to hold.