Semi supply chain at value prices: TSMC, ASML, memory at cyclical lows, equipment recurring revenue
Semiconductor Value (Picks & Shovels)
| Symbol | Action | Vol | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Size | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRSR | BUY | 72% | 40.0% below entry | 84.2% above entry | 3.3% | TVYH |
| LRCX | BUY | 52% | 40.0% below entry | 60.8% above entry | 4.6% | TVYH |
| AVGO | BUY | 55% | 40.0% below entry | 64.8% above entry | 4.3% | TVYH |
| ASML | BUY | 45% | 40.0% below entry | 52.7% above entry | 5.3% | TVYH |
| KLAC | BUY | 48% | 40.0% below entry | 56.3% above entry | 5.0% | TVYH |
| ON | BUY | 55% | 40.0% below entry | 64.7% above entry | 4.3% | TVYH |
| MU | BUY | 63% | 40.0% below entry | 73.9% above entry | 3.8% | TVYH |
| AMAT | BUY | 48% | 40.0% below entry | 56.3% above entry | 5.0% | TVYH |
| SSNLF | BUY | 223% | 40.0% below entry | 84.2% above entry | 3.3% | TVYH |
| TSM | BUY | 42% | 40.0% below entry | 49.0% above entry | 5.7% | TVYH |
This strategy is suitable for passive investing. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -41% drawdown to return 402% long-term. - Exit rule: Exit if free cash flow turns negative for 2 quarters — value trap confirmed.