Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Visa posts fastest revenue growth since 2013 ($11.2B, +17%; non-GAAP EPS $3.31 vs ~$3.10 est) + $20B record buyback. SBUX +5% AH on US comp +7.1% (transactions +4.4%) — Niccol turnaround confirmed. Seagate record quarter (+44% YoY, data center +55%). UAE exits OPEC May 1. Brent $113+ (8th consecutive session gain, highest since June 2022). Today: Powell's FINAL FOMC meeting as chair (term ends May 15); hold at 3.5–3.75% certain. Tonight: Mag-4 — MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN all report.

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Tuesday's session ended in pain — S&P -0.49%, Nasdaq -0.9% — as the Wall Street Journal's OpenAI bombshell landed before the open: missed revenue targets, missed user growth, and a CFO warning that $1.5 trillion in future compute contracts may be unfundable if growth doesn't accelerate, sending Oracle -4%, Broadcom -4%, and AMD -3% across the tape. After the bell, the consumer told a sharply different story: Visa reported its fastest revenue growth since 2013 (Q2 revenue $11.2B, +17% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $3.31 vs ~$3.10 estimate; $20B buyback launched) while Starbucks delivered the clearest evidence of Brian Niccol's turnaround yet — global comp +6.2% vs 3.7% expected, US comp +7.1% (transactions +4.4%, ticket +2.6%) — sending the stock +5% after hours and raising full-year guidance; Seagate reported a record quarter ($3.1B revenue, +44% YoY, data center +55% YoY) with annual growth target raised to 20%+. Oil escalated structurally overnight: the UAE announced it exits OPEC effective May 1, stripping the cartel of its second-largest source of spare production capacity, while Trump remained publicly "not satisfied" with Tehran's Hormuz-reopening offer, pushing Brent to $113+ (eighth consecutive daily gain, highest since June 2022) and national gasoline to $4.25/gallon — the IEA has labeled this the largest supply shock on record. Today everything converges: Jerome Powell chairs his final FOMC meeting as Fed chair (term ends May 15; Kevin Warsh widely expected as successor) — hold at 3.5–3.75% is priced at 100% — and after the close, MSFT, META, GOOGL, and AMZN all report simultaneously in the most consequential single earnings night of 2026; their guidance on AI capital spending will either validate or fracture the $630B infrastructure thesis that the OpenAI miss put on notice.

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1. Market Snapshot

Tuesday close (April 28): S&P 7,138.80 (-0.49%), Nasdaq 24,663.80 (-0.9%), Dow 49,141.93 (-0.05%). Session led lower by OpenAI revenue-miss fallout (Oracle -4%, Broadcom -4%, AMD -3%) and Brent surging through $110 intraday. VIX notably closed at 17.83 — well below its ~20.86 pre-market open — as markets absorbed AI uncertainty without systemic panic and positioned for the Mag-4 binary. GM closed +1.3% ($78.95), giving back most of its +5% pre-market surge.

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2. Asia Recap

Takeaway: Japan is absent (Showa Day), removing a key price-discovery signal from the Asian session. China and Hong Kong are posting a meaningful relief rally (+1.1–1.2%) — likely driven by short-covering ahead of the Mag-4 binary and tentative easing of trade concerns. Korea's KOSPI continues its remarkable run on the semiconductor export thesis. Thursday, all Asian markets reopen simultaneously into Q1 GDP, PCE, BoE/ECB decisions, and full Mag-4 results — that will be the most crowded morning of 2026.

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3. Europe Now

European markets are self-described as "paralyzed" ahead of today's two-catalyst binary. The Mag-4 results won't be known until well after European close; FOMC at 2 PM ET is 7 PM BST / 8 PM CET — Europe wakes up Thursday to a fully resolved Mag-4 night and a Powell valedictory. Airbus's blowout (+121% above consensus net income estimate) is the session's single star; Adidas at +7% shows lifestyle/sport categories still work in the Hormuz shock environment.

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4. Economic Calendar

Today's macro load is entirely back-half. No pre-market economic releases. The session structure: quiet morning → FOMC hold at 2 PM (Powell's final chapter) → Mag-4 after close. Thursday is the data dump: Q1 GDP + PCE simultaneously at 8:30 AM alongside BoE/ECB decisions, then Mastercard BMO and Apple AH.

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5. News & Events

Visa (V) — Q2 FY2026 Blowout Beat ✓

• Net revenue $11.2B (+17% YoY) — fastest revenue growth since 2013
• Non-GAAP EPS $3.31 vs ~$3.09–3.10 estimate (+20% YoY) — significant beat
• GAAP EPS $3.14
• $20B share buyback — record authorization
• Full-year guidance raised: revenue growth to low double-digit to low teens (from high single-digit); adj. EPS growth to low teens (from mid-to-high single digits)
• Stock: minimal AH reaction; market focused on tonight's binary
• Read-through: Cross-border payment volume intact despite Hormuz disruption. Five consecutive consumer-side beats this week (VZ Monday, KO + GM Tuesday BMO, V + SBUX Tuesday AH). Consumer is alive through $4.25/gallon gas and $113 Brent.

Starbucks (SBUX) — Q2 FY2026 Turnaround Confirmed ✓

• Revenue $9.53B vs $9.16B estimate (+9% YoY) — beat
• GAAP EPS $0.45 vs $0.42 estimate — beat
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.50 vs $0.42 estimate — significant beat
• US comparable sales +7.1% (transactions +4.4%, average ticket +2.6%) — second consecutive positive US transaction quarter
• Global comparable sales +6.2% vs 3.7% consensus estimate — dramatically above expectations
• International comparable sales +2.6%
• Operating margin expanded +110 bps to 9.4%
• Full-year guidance raised: global and US comp growth of 5.0% or better (from 3%); non-GAAP EPS $2.25–$2.45
• Stock: +~5% after hours — the clearest validation of CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround thesis to date

Seagate Technology (STX) — Q3 FY2026 Record Quarter ✓

• Revenue $3.1B (+44% YoY, +10% QoQ) — record
• Non-GAAP EPS $4.10 (+115% YoY, +32% QoQ)
• Non-GAAP gross margin 47% (+180 bps QoQ)
• Data center revenue $2.5B (+55% YoY, +12% QoQ)
• Data center exabytes 175 — up 47% YoY; total exabytes 199 (+39% YoY)
• Free cash flow $953M; retired $641M of debt
• Annual revenue growth target raised to at least 20%
• Q4 guidance: Revenue $3.45B ±$100M (+41% YoY at midpoint); non-GAAP EPS $5.00 ±$0.20
• Read-through: AI-driven nearline storage demand at cloud providers is accelerating regardless of OpenAI's consumer-facing stumbles. Enterprise infrastructure build-out continues at full speed.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — Q1 2026 Solid Beat

• Revenue $5.53B (+16.2% YoY) — in line with estimates
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.14 — 5.7% above consensus
• Adjusted EBITDA $1.3B vs $1.25B estimate (+4.3%)
• Room nights booked +6% YoY; ARPB +9.6% to $16.37
• Record $4.0B returned to shareholders in Q1 ($3.6B buybacks + $0.3B dividends — highest quarterly total ever)
• Guidance: High single to low double-digit gross bookings growth; assumes Middle East conflict headwinds through end of June, then recovery in H2
• Read-through: Global travel demand is remarkably resilient through Hormuz disruption. Booking is explicitly pricing in conflict resolution by July — watch for any update to that assumption.

Robinhood (HOOD) — Q1 2026 Miss ✗

• Revenue $1.07B (+15% YoY) — missed $1.17B estimate
• EPS $0.38 vs $0.41 estimate — missed
• Crypto revenue -47% YoY — primary drag (Bitcoin range-bound; crypto options weaker than expected)
• Positive offsets: Net deposits $18B (20%+ annualized growth, third-highest quarter); Gold subscribers record 4.3M (+36%); Total Platform Assets +39% to $307B
• Trump Accounts: 5.5M+ American children enrolled; Robinhood is sole broker/trustee per Treasury direction
• Stock: -2.27% AH, -3.1% pre-market Wednesday
• Read-through: Crypto revenue is highly volatile. Underlying platform growth (deposits, subscribers) is strong but insufficient to offset crypto weakness. BTC needs to break its $77K range for HOOD's revenue model to reaccelerate.

UAE Exits OPEC — Effective May 1 ✦

• The United Arab Emirates announced departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026
• UAE is OPEC's second-largest source of spare production capacity — up to 1M bbl/day of production flexibility above current output
• Short-term impact: Minimal — the Strait of Hormuz is still closed; UAE's own export capacity is constrained by the conflict; no barrel count changes in the near term
• Long-term impact: Structurally bearish for OPEC's supply management ability; Saudi Arabia faces a weakened coalition; UAE can eventually grow production by ~1M bbl/day without cartel discipline
• UAE Energy Minister: "The Strait of Hormuz is closed anyway — the timing is right because this will not significantly impact the market"
• Market read: Oil initially ambivalent — Hormuz closure dominates supply narrative, making UAE's flexibility irrelevant today. But this is a structurally important shift for post-conflict oil market dynamics; watch the long-dated oil forward curve.

Powell's Final FOMC Meeting — Historic Transition

• Today marks Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve chair — his term expires May 15, 2026
• Market consensus: 100% hold at 3.5–3.75%; no dissent expected
• Kevin Warsh widely reported as Trump's successor pick — former Fed governor, seen as more market-attuned
• Powell's challenge at 2:30 PM: Explain why the Fed stands pat with Brent at $113, gasoline at $4.25/gallon, and stagflation risk building — without triggering a rate-hike tantrum or undermining his successor's independence
• Watch the presser for: (1) inflation language specifically on oil pass-through, (2) growth/labor balance, (3) any signal on June/July direction, (4) any indication Powell stays on as governor after his chair term
• Historical context: Powell navigated COVID QE, the 2022 rate hike cycle (500+ bps in 12 months), and now the Hormuz oil shock — this is his valedictory under maximum difficulty

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6. WSB/Retail Sentiment

Mag-4 night dominates everything. r/wallstreetbets and r/stocks are running heavy options positioning pre-close: MSFT calls (Azure 38%+ beat thesis), META calls vs. puts (AI monetization vs. massive capex spend debate), GOOGL straddles (will Search AI hold share or lose it to ChatGPT?), and AMZN longs anchored on the AWS margin expansion story. SBUX is the retail narrative win of the day — "Niccol fixed it" is trending across finance subs; the +7.1% US comp on transaction growth (not just price hikes) is described as the cleanest turnaround evidence since Nadella's first year at MSFT; SBUX pre-market is being treated as a momentum entry. Visa's muted AH reaction despite its fastest revenue growth since 2013 and a $20B buyback is generating "suppression" speculation — retail sees it as a setup, not a selloff. The OpenAI miss continues to polarize: "OpenAI missing targets proves AI hype is vapor" vs. "Seagate's record +55% data center quarter proves the enterprise layer is real and MSFT/META will confirm it tonight." Both camps are active; Seagate is being cited by the AI-bull contingent as decisive counter-evidence to the consumer-AI stumble narrative. Powell's "last dance" is getting philosophical traction among retail — framed as "the beginning of the Warsh era" with speculation that a more market-friendly Fed chair means rate cuts arrive before year-end; Bitcoin is quietly watched in the $77K zone as the -0.90 DXY correlation makes any dovish Powell signal a potential BTC catalyst toward $80K+.

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7. Commodities & Currencies

WTI at ~$99–100 is today's market signal. The psychological $100 level is now being tested — any confirmed intraday close above $100 will trigger media amplification directly into Powell's press conference, creating an awkward backdrop for a "hold" announcement. Brent at $113 (eight consecutive gains) represents a 14%+ move from the ~$99 level at which Iran peace talks were briefly alive. The IEA's "largest supply shock on record" designation is now mainstream financial media language. Gold continues to underperform expectations as a geopolitical hedge — markets are routing the Hormuz risk through oil and energy equities, not precious metals. The 10Y at 4.35% (flat) suggests bond markets believe Powell's hold is credible and oil inflation hasn't yet migrated into long-duration rate pricing. DXY at 98.74 (+0.25%) is consistent with a "safe hold" FOMC outcome; any dovish Powell tone could weaken the dollar and provide a Bitcoin catalyst.

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8. Earnings This Week

Tue · BMO (Apr 28)

Tue · AH (Apr 28)

Wed · AH (Apr 29) — Mag-4 Night

The OpenAI signal looms over all four prints. If MSFT confirms Azure AI workloads accelerating, the OpenAI miss is company-specific. If Azure disappoints, the AI infrastructure thesis has a systemic problem. Tonight resolves the question.

Also today: FOMC at 2:00 PM + Powell final presser at 2:30 PM ET.

Thu · BMO (Apr 30)

Thu · AH (Apr 30)

Also Thursday 8:30 AM: Q1 GDP Advance + PCE (March). BoE + ECB rate decisions.

Fri · Partial (May 1)

XOM, CVX Q1 earnings — the oil major scorecards. Q1 WTI averaged ~$90+ with significant back-half acceleration as the Hormuz crisis developed; Brent averaged well above $100 in late Q1. Both are expected blowout beats. Note: Europe, Japan, and China all closed for Labor Day — thin global liquidity on Friday.

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9. Strategy Triggers

Active Signals (as of 7 AM)

warflation_hedge

Signal: HOLD. Brent at $113 (eighth consecutive gain), WTI testing $100, UAE OPEC exit structurally bearish for long-term cartel discipline. The warflation thesis is in full execution: oil-proximate names (XLE, XOM, CVX, midstream) benefit from the Hormuz supply shock premium. UAE exit is noise in the near term — Hormuz closure is the dominant variable. Hold through Friday's XOM/CVX Q1 earnings.

commodity_supercycle

Signal: HOLD. Eight consecutive Brent gains, WTI at $100 psychological level, IEA "largest supply shock on record" designation. Supercycle thesis is not just intact — it's accelerating. No new adds today (FOMC + Mag-4 binary), no trims. Review after Powell's presser for any demand-destruction signal in the statement language.

gross_profitability_value

Signal: BUY WATCH — V and SBUX. Visa's +17% revenue growth on the highest-quality payments network globally is the gross profitability thesis in its purest form. Starbucks' 9.4% operating margin (+110 bps expansion) shows the turnaround is margin-accretive, not just volume-driven. Entry window: Thursday 7 AM after Mag-4 resolution — if risk-on, these are add-on-dip candidates.

fomc_announcement

Signal: WATCH. 100% hold priced; Powell's final presser is the variable. Historically, FOMC "holds" with a hawkish presser create 1–2 day negative drift in rate-sensitive growth names; neutral/dovish holds create a brief risk-on pop. Watch the oil inflation language — if Powell acknowledges Brent $113 as a material risk, rate-sensitive names face mild pressure before Mag-4 prints override.

ai_mega_ecosystem

Signal: WAIT. OpenAI miss is a near-term headwind, but Seagate's record data center quarter (+55% YoY) argues the enterprise infrastructure layer is unaffected. Tonight's Mag-4 prints will resolve the debate. If Azure/AWS/Cloud beats, the ecosystem is intact. If AI capex guidance softens, the ecosystem faces a 5–10% correction. No position changes pre-print.

uranium_renaissance

Signal: CONSOLIDATE. UEC approximately flat Tuesday after Monday's +9.74% surge; LEU similarly consolidating. Hormuz deal officially dead (both Trump and Rubio rejected); UAE OPEC exit is neutral for nuclear. Thesis intact — no adds, no trims; let the sector breathe. Re-entry on a 3–5% pullback from Monday close.

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10. Tuesday's Predictions — Scorecard

Tuesday's report (20260428.md) made 10 predictions for April 28 trading:

Accuracy: 4 correct + 3 partial + 3 wrong = 55% (treating partials as 0.5). Biggest miss: VIX (#6) — the market completely ignored the FOMC-onset vol signal; VIX dropped from ~20.86 pre-market to close at 17.83 as markets digested AI concerns without panic. S&P (#1) was directionally right but underestimated the OpenAI impact — the miss was outside the predicted range. GM (#7) gave back far more than predicted — investors saw through the SCOTUS windfall as a one-time item and focused on the revenue headwind (-1% YoY). Key wins: Visa (#4) and Starbucks (#5) were precisely right; the consumer thesis was completely validated. Lesson: consumer income statements are more predictable than volatility index behavior during multi-binary sessions.

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11. Trade Ideas

HOLD/WATCH day — Mag-4 binary supersedes all intraday setups.

• SBUX dip-to-buy setup: Stock is +5% AH. If it opens +4–5% and fades intraday to +2–3% on profit-taking, that is the entry for the Niccol turnaround thesis. US comp +7.1% with positive transactions is thesis validated — don't miss the dip if it comes.
• V: Overlooked by the tape, valuable. Stock barely moved AH despite fastest revenue growth since 2013 and a $20B buyback. If V opens flat or down despite strong results, that is the setup — the buyback provides a mechanical floor.
• STX: Pre-market gap likely. Record quarter (+44% YoY), AI data center +55%, guidance raised. If pre-market shows +5–8%, don't chase at open; wait for intraday consolidation at +3–5%.
• Energy (XLE/XOM/CVX): Maintain full weight. Brent at $113 with UAE OPEC exit removes the last structural ceiling on supply; WTI at $100 is a momentum catalyst. XOM/CVX report Friday — Q1 tailwinds are massive.
• FOMC play: No action pre-announcement. Post-Powell: if he delivers neutral/dovish hold → rate-sensitive growth (AMZN retail, MSFT cloud) gets a brief lift potentially reinforced by Mag-4. If hawkish → wait for earnings to override.
• Mag-4 positions: Enter ONLY after 7 AM Thursday when all four results are in and digested. Do not FOMO-buy any single name mid-session tonight. Wait for the full picture.
• HOOD dip: -3% pre-market on the miss is tempting but crypto revenue is structurally volatile; wait for a clear BTC breakout above $80K before adding fintech-crypto names.

Autonomous trader stance: WATCH mode. The FOMC at 2 PM and Mag-4 post-close are the two most market-moving events of the week compressed into a single afternoon. No new positions today. Entry window opens Thursday 7 AM.

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The Day Ahead in One Paragraph

Today is the most consequential single day of 2026 for markets: the FOMC at 2 PM delivers Jerome Powell's valedictory — his final rate decision as Fed chair, holding at 3.5–3.75% against a backdrop of Brent $113, WTI at $100, $4.25/gallon gasoline, and the IEA's "largest supply shock on record," while markets will parse every word of his 2:30 PM presser for any signal about his successor Kevin Warsh's likely trajectory. After the close, MSFT, META, GOOGL, and AMZN all report simultaneously in the most concentrated earnings event of the year, carrying the collective weight of $630B+ in guided 2026 AI capital spending — their guidance on Azure AI growth, Llama 4 monetization, Cloud margins, and AWS demand will either validate or fracture the infrastructure thesis that the OpenAI revenue miss put on notice yesterday. The morning setup is unexpectedly constructive: futures near-flat to slightly positive as Visa (fastest revenue growth since 2013), Starbucks (+7.1% US comp, +5% AH), and Seagate (record quarter, +44% YoY, data center +55%) combine to paint a consumer and infrastructure picture far stronger than Tuesday's tape suggested, while Asia's China/HK relief rally (+1.1–1.2%) adds a supportive overnight signal. The UAE's exit from OPEC (effective May 1) adds a structural oil subplot playing out over months, not today; Brent at $113 (eighth consecutive daily gain) and WTI near $100 are the intraday risk variables — a WTI confirmed close above $100 would be a headline accelerant for Powell's presser and a historic energy signal. The trader stance: hold cash, don't chase the pre-market move, watch Powell closely at 2:30 PM, and wait for Thursday 7 AM when the full Mag-4 scorecard and FOMC language are both digested before any new entry decision.

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Today's Predictions

1. S&P 500 opens +0.2–0.5%, consolidates to flat by noon — SBUX/V/STX AH beats provide morning lift; pre-FOMC positioning dampens enthusiasm mid-session; closes flat to +0.3% before Mag-4 results.
2. Nasdaq outperforms S&P (+0.3–0.7%) — SBUX/STX provide tech-adjacent lift; OpenAI concerns offset by Seagate's data center evidence; market bids tech names ahead of the Mag-4 binary.
3. FOMC holds at 3.5–3.75%; Powell's presser is hawkish on oil inflation — acknowledges Brent $113 as a "supply-side risk to the inflation outlook"; signals the Fed will not cut until oil's inflationary pass-through is fully assessed; market reads as "on hold through at least September."
4. MSFT Azure growth prints 39–43% (vs ~37–38% est) — enterprise AI adoption exceeds OpenAI's consumer miss; Copilot attach rate beats; stock +4–8% AH.
5. META beats on revenue ($56–57B vs $55.5B est); AI ad monetization story cleaner than feared — Llama 4 enterprise uptake cited; AI capex guidance maintained or modestly raised; stock +3–6% AH.
6. GOOGL beats on Cloud growth (+42–48%) and Search — Google AI integration holds market share; YouTube revenue upside; stock +3–5% AH.
7. AMZN beats on AWS operating margins; retail guidance cautious on macro — AWS revenue ~$37–38B (vs $36.8B est); energy cost commentary is the retail guidance risk; stock +2–4% AH.
8. All four Mag-4 beat → NQ futures +1.5–2.5% overnight — Mag-4 sweep resolves OpenAI miss as company-specific; AI infrastructure thesis restored; Thursday opens with risk-on surge.
9. WTI closes above $100 today — the psychological level is breached and holds at close for the first time since 2022; Brent closes $114–116; gasoline at $4.25/gallon gets broader media attention.
10. No paper trades today — autonomous trader holds WATCH; next entry window Thursday 7 AM after full Mag-4 scorecard, Powell language, and Thursday 8:30 AM GDP/PCE are all digested.

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Sources:
- CNBC: Stocks making biggest moves after hours — HOOD, BKNG, SBUX, V (Apr 28)
- BigGo Finance: Visa Q2 2026 Financial Results — Strongest Revenue Growth Since 2013
- BusinessWire: Visa Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- Investing.com: Visa Q2 FY2026 slides — revenue surges 17%, record buyback
- GuruFocus: Starbucks Q2 FY2026 — GAAP EPS $0.45 vs $0.42 est, revenue $9.53B vs $9.16B
- Investing.com: Starbucks Q2 FY26 slides — turnaround gains momentum with 7% US growth
- Starbucks IR: Q2 FY2026 Results
- GuruFocus: Seagate Q3 FY2026 — Record Revenue and Strategic Growth
- BusinessWire: Seagate Technology Q3 FY2026 Financial Results
- StockStory: Booking Holdings Q1 CY2026 — Revenue In Line
- Investing.com: Booking Holdings Q1 2026 — earnings beat amid Middle East headwinds
- StockTitan: Robinhood Q1 2026 — Revenue $1.07B, EPS $0.38
- Qz.com: Robinhood Q1 2026 — revenue up 15%, crypto down 47%
- CNBC: UAE's shock OPEC exit — what it means for oil and the cartel
- Bloomberg: UAE to leave OPEC and OPEC+ next month
- Fox Business: UAE exits OPEC and OPEC+, seeking output flexibility
- CNBC: Fed expected to hold rates as Powell faces likely final news conference
- PBS NewsHour: Watch live — Fed Chair Powell holds briefing as term nears end
- CNBC: OpenAI reportedly missed revenue targets — Oracle and chip stocks falling
- Business Standard: Oil outlook — prolonged Iran war, Hormuz disruption
- CNBC: Asia markets April 29 2026 — Hang Seng, KOSPI, CSI 300
- MarketScreener: European markets cautious ahead of Fed and major corporate earnings
- TheStreet: Stock Market Today Apr 29 2026 — Futures Mixed, Oil Up
- Seeking Alpha: Microsoft Q3 FY2026 Earnings Preview
- Seeking Alpha: Alphabet Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
- S&P Global: Amazon Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
- S&P Global: Apple Q2 FY2026 Earnings Preview
- Meyka: Mastercard Earnings Preview April 30, 2026 (BMO)
- Investing.com: Upcoming Market Dates — PCE and Q1 GDP Determining Fed's Next Move
- Morningstar: Q1 2026 GDP — Sharp Slowdown Expected as Imports Surge
- Forex.com: Bitcoin, DXY Price Outlook — Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of FOMC

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