Wealth Barometer

DLTR/DG crash signals K-shaped economy → long Costco + luxury (rich don't care)

Wealth Barometer (Dollar Store vs Costco/Luxury)

Total Return

+25.9%

Sharpe Ratio

0.35

Max Drawdown

-22.4%

Win Rate

54.5%

Alpha

-15.1%

Comp. Score *

0.08

Risk Parameters

Max Allocation6.4%

Stop Loss15.0%

Take Profit8.0%

Max DD Tolerance22.4%

Rebalanceweekly

Execution Guidance

Order TypeMarket

Entry RuleEnter immediately when trigger fires. Speed matters more than price.

TimingSAFE TO BUY. *

ScalingFull position at trigger. No scaling — the signal is binary.

Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing

Symbol	Action	Vol	Stop Loss	Take Profit	Size	Links
WMT	BUY	23%	14.7% below entry	7.9% above entry	6.5%	TV YH
TJX	BUY	18%	11.3% below entry	6.0% above entry	8.5%	TV YH
COST	BUY	21%	13.0% below entry	6.9% above entry	7.4%	TV YH

▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -24% drawdown to return 48% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.

Avg 5Y Return

20.6%

Avg 5Y Sharpe

0.03

10Y Return

48.1%

10Y Sharpe

0.06

HODL Composite

0.10

Consistency

53%

Suitable for passive