Monday, April 13, 2026
The blockade is real. The damage is priced. Now what?
Sunday's worst-case scenario played out. The Hormuz blockade went from Truth Social post to CENTCOM operational order in under 18 hours. Oil is back above $100. Asian markets bled. Goldman Sachs beat earnings but nobody cares -- the stock is down 3% pre-market anyway. This is a geopolitics-first tape.
1. Market Overview
US Futures (as of early Monday pre-market)
| Contract | Level | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (ES) | ~6,809 | -0.67% (-46 pts) | Below 6,816 Friday close; testing support |
| Dow (YM) | ~47,648 | -1.00% (-481 pts) | Sank as much as 580 pts overnight before paring |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQ) | ~25,103 | -0.71% (-179 pts) | Tech hit by energy cost fears |
| Russell 2000 (RTY) | ~2,623 | -0.82% (-22 pts) | Small caps exposed to input costs |
| VIX | 21.50 | +11.8% (+2.27 pts) | Up from 19.23 Friday close. Not yet at 30 trigger. |
Sunday's report predicted: "If S&P futures breach 6,550, Monday opens ugly." We are at 6,809 -- damaged but not catastrophic. The 6,800 level is the new line in the sand.
Commodities
| Asset | Level | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $104.40-104.80 | +8-9% | Back above $100 for first time since ceasefire |
| Brent Crude | $101.67-102.30 | +7-7.4% | Goldman says another month of Hormuz closure = $100+ Brent all 2026 |
| Gold | $4,736 | -1.07% (-$51) | Surprising weakness; margin calls and liquidity preference over haven bid |
| Bitcoin | $70,964 | -0.64% | Still trading as risk asset, not haven. Held above $70K. |
2. Key News
Hormuz Blockade -- Now Operational
This is no longer a threat. It is happening.
CENTCOM announced that US naval forces will block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports starting at 10:00 AM ET today (Monday). Critical detail: the blockade targets Iranian ports specifically -- CENTCOM will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
This is an important distinction from Sunday's reporting. The strait itself is not being shut -- Iranian port access is. This means ~4% of global oil supply (Iran's exports, mostly to China) is being cut off, not the full 20% that transits the strait. Markets had initially priced a full closure; the narrower scope explains why futures partially recovered overnight (Dow went from -580 to -481).
Iran's response: IRGC says any military vessels approaching the strait "will be considered a violation of the ceasefire and will be met with severe force." Iran's armed forces called it "an illegal act" and "piracy." Foreign Minister Araghchi blamed Washington's "maximalism, shifting goalposts and blockade" for the failed talks.
Ceasefire status: Trump says it is "holding well" despite the blockade. The two-week ceasefire (started April 8) technically remains in effect. Pakistan continues to urge both sides to maintain it. The contradiction -- a ceasefire and a naval blockade simultaneously -- is the market's central confusion.
Escalation risk: Moderate. If Iran retaliates against US naval vessels, the ceasefire collapses entirely. If they absorb the blockade, this becomes an economic squeeze rather than a military escalation.
Goldman Sachs Q1 Earnings -- Beat, But Market Does Not Care
Goldman reported before the bell today. The numbers are strong. The stock is down anyway.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $17.55 | $16.34 | Beat by 7.4% |
| Net earnings | $5.6B | -- | +19% YoY |
| Equity trading | Record | -- | Market volatility = trading revenue |
| M&A advisory fees | $1.5B | -- | +48% YoY |
| FICC revenue | $4.0B | ~$4.86B | Missed by ~$855M |
GS stock: Down 3% pre-market despite the EPS beat. The FICC miss and the macro overhang from Hormuz are dominating sentiment. This is the "good earnings don't matter in a geopolitical storm" pattern.
The FICC miss is notable -- fixed income revenue fell 13% YoY even as markets were volatile. This could signal client risk reduction rather than active trading, which is bearish for the broader outlook.
Fastenal (FAST) -- Industrial Bellwether Signals Caution
- EPS: $0.30 (matched consensus)
- Revenue: $2.2B (+12.4% YoY, in line)
- Stock: Down 4% pre-market on margin pressure and flat growth outlook
- Reading: Industrial demand is not accelerating. The economy is digesting higher energy costs, not growing through them.
3. Asia/Europe Recap
Asia (Monday close)
Asian markets sold off but not as severely as Sunday's report feared. The "1-3% gap down" prediction for Japan landed at the low end.
| Index | Close | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | -- | -0.74% | Topix -0.45%. Yen strength headwind but less severe than feared. |
| Kospi | 5,809 | -0.86% | Kosdaq actually gained +0.57% in choppy trade. Semi resilience. |
| CSI 300 | -- | +0.21% | China bucked the trend. Cheaper diverted Iranian oil = net positive? |
| Hang Seng | -- | -1.01% | Afternoon selling accelerated on blockade confirmation. |
| ASX 200 | 8,926 | -0.39% | Minimal damage. Energy stocks offset losses elsewhere. |
| Sensex | ~75,937 open | -2.08% (crashed 1,300-1,600 pts) | India hammered hardest. Oil importer + refinery exposure. |
| Nifty 50 | ~23,590 open | -1.92% | Biggest Asia loser. Oil above $100 is existential for Indian inflation. |
Key takeaway: The blockade's narrower scope (Iranian ports only, not full strait closure) prevented the worst-case Asian bloodbath. China actually closed green. India was the real casualty -- an oil-importing economy watching crude reclaim $105 is pricing in margin compression and inflation reignition.
Europe (Monday morning)
| Index | Level | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoxx 600 | -- | -0.7% | All major bourses red, most sectors down |
| DAX | -- | -1.42% at open, then recovered to -1.0% area | DAX futures clawed back to 24,037 (+0.41% from lows) |
| FTSE 100 | -- | Underperforming | Energy-heavy but airlines dragging |
Sector carnage:
- Travel & leisure: Down 2.1%. Wizz Air -6.9%, Lufthansa -3.9%, EasyJet -3.8%. Jet fuel cost fears dominate.
- Energy: Outperforming. Oil majors (Shell, BP, TotalEnergies) rallying on $100+ crude.
- Defense: Holding firm. Budget tailwinds + conflict escalation = structural support.
4. Economic Calendar This Week
Monday, April 13
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales (March) | 4.055M SAAR (from 4.09M Feb) | Housing health. Shelter CPI was +0.5% m/m. Will be overshadowed by Hormuz. |
Tuesday, April 14
| Time (ET) | Release | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-market | JPMorgan (JPM) earnings | EPS est. $5.38. Credit provisions ($4.6B) and Dimon commentary are the main events. |
| Pre-market | Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) | Big Four bank day. NII, consumer credit, trading revenue. |
| 8:30 AM | PPI (March) -- headline and core | Critical. If hot, confirms CPI was not a fluke. With oil back at $104, pipeline inflation is the fear. |
| -- | USTR Section 301 comments due | US-China trade friction wildcard. |
Wednesday, April 16
| Time (ET) | Release | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| AM | TSMC (TSM) earnings call | Revenue known ($35.7B, +35% YoY). Margin guidance and AI demand commentary are the week's marquee event for tech. |
| After hours | Netflix (NFLX) | EPS est. $0.76, revenue $12.17B. First major tech earnings report. |
Thursday, April 17
| Release | Impact |
|---|---|
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Healthcare bellwether. |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | Wealth management flows, trading desk (compare to GS). |
Friday, April 18-19
| Event | Impact |
|---|---|
| BOJ meeting (rate decision at 0.75%) | Hormuz complicates Japan's energy cost calculus. Yen direction matters for exporters. |
5. Sector Signals for Our Strategies
Immediately Actionable
| # | Strategy | Signal | Monday Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | warflation_hedge | STRONG BUY confirmed. Oil $104, blockade operational, defense budgets locked at $1.5T. EPD, ET, WMB, MPLX, OKE (midstream) benefit from throughput pricing. LMT, RTX (new ATH at $245), NOC benefit from escalation. Sunday's call to "ADD at Monday open" stands. | Full position. This is the strategy's design scenario. |
| 82 | defense_budget_floor | BUY. RTX hit all-time high of $245 this week. LMT getting doubled F-35 orders (85 units) + $25B Golden Dome allocation. Ceasefire collapse = more defense spend. ITA +38% YTD. | Add. The dip-on-ceasefire-optimism is fully reversed. |
| 7 | barbell_portfolio | HOLD. Energy leg surging on $104 oil. Staples provide ballast against equity weakness. The barbell is doing exactly what it is designed to do. | No changes. Self-hedging. |
| 88 | vix_spike_buyback | WATCH. VIX at 21.50, up 11.8% from Friday. The 30+ trigger has not fired. If the blockade escalates (Iran retaliates), VIX could spike to 28-35 range. If the blockade holds without incident, VIX may drift back to 22-24. | Set alerts at 25, 28, 30. Do not pre-position. |
| 30 | uranium_renaissance | HOLD. CCJ +200% over past year. Uranium at $84+ and Citi targets $100-125/lb. Nuclear power is the anti-Hormuz trade -- zero dependence on Middle East energy. Uncorrelated to this week's noise. | Hold. Quiet structural winner. |
Asia-Exposed -- Updated from Sunday
| Strategy | Signal | Monday Action |
|---|---|---|
| singapore_alpha | RELATIVE WINNER. ASX 200 only -0.39%. DBS/UOB/OCBC dividend yields (4.7-5.9%) provide income floor. Low oil import dependency vs Japan/India. | Best risk-adjusted Asia play. Hold or add. |
| korean_chaebols | HOLD. Kospi -0.86% but Kosdaq +0.57%. Semiconductor resilience (exports +151% YoY) is real. Samsung 2nm progress intact. The Korea discount thesis survived Monday. | Hold. Semi structural story transcends Hormuz. |
| japan_industrial_finance | CAUTION. Nikkei -0.74% was better than feared, but BOJ meeting Friday adds uncertainty. Yen strength on haven flows pressures exporters. | Reduce to 50% as recommended Sunday. Reassess after BOJ. |
| china_adr_deep_value | CAUTIOUS HOLD. CSI 300 actually closed +0.21% -- China benefits from cheaper Iranian oil diverted by the blockade. But Section 301 comments due Tuesday add friction. | Small position. Do not add ahead of Tuesday. |
Energy/Commodity Strategies
| Strategy | Signal | Monday Action |
|---|---|---|
| commodity_supercycle | BUY. Oil $104, copper at $5.75-5.81/lb (highest since March), gold elevated. Supply disruptions accelerate the cycle. | Add on energy leg. |
| oil_down_tech_up (#35) | DO NOT trigger. Oil is at $104, emphatically not "down." This strategy remains dormant. A false signal here would be costly. | Avoid. Wait for actual oil decline. |
Consumer/Travel -- Reversals
| Strategy | Signal | Monday Action |
|---|---|---|
| wealth_barometer | WATCH for entry. Dollar stores may weaken further as energy costs compress consumer budgets. Gas back above $4/gallon is the trigger. | Monitor. Not yet triggered but approaching. |
| Travel-exposed strategies | AVOID. Wizz Air -6.9%, Lufthansa -3.9%, cruise stocks reversing last week's +11% rally. Jet fuel fears dominate. | Reduce or exit travel/leisure longs. |
Bank Earnings Strategies
Goldman's mixed report (EPS beat, FICC miss, stock -3%) sets a complicated tone for Tuesday's Big Four. The reading:
- Equity trading is booming (record at GS) -- volatility is revenue for trading desks
- FICC disappointed -- clients may be de-risking, not trading
- M&A advisory surging (+48%) -- dealmaking pipeline intact despite geopolitics
- Credit provisions will be Tuesday's key number (JPM expected $4.6B) -- are banks building recession reserves?
For our strategies: banks-as-volatility-beneficiaries thesis is partially confirmed. The financial sector is a mixed bag, not a clear buy or sell.
6. Trade Ideas
High Conviction
-
Energy midstream (EPD, ET, WMB, MPLX, OKE): Blockade = sustained high throughput pricing. These names benefit from volume regardless of whether oil goes to $110 or pulls back to $95. Dividend yields provide downside protection. This is warflation_hedge (#64) core.
-
Defense (LMT, RTX, NOC, ITA): RTX at all-time high ($245). LMT getting 85 F-35s + $25B Golden Dome. The $1.5T budget is locked. Ceasefire collapse removes the only headwind. defense_budget_floor (#82) core.
-
Uranium (CCJ, URA): Zero correlation to Hormuz. Nuclear renaissance is structural (AI data center power demand + energy security). CCJ +200% in a year. uranium_renaissance (#30) core.
Moderate Conviction
-
Singapore banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC) via singapore_alpha: Best risk-adjusted Asia play. 4.7-5.9% yields. Low oil import dependency. 100% consistency across 6 windows.
-
TSMC (TSM) into Wednesday earnings: AI infrastructure spend is the one story that transcends geopolitics. Revenue already known ($35.7B, +35%). The call is about forward guidance. ai_token_economy (#2) core. Consider adding if it dips on broad market weakness.
Avoid
-
Airlines, cruise lines, travel/leisure. Last week's ceasefire rally is unwinding. Jet fuel back above $3/gallon. Do not catch falling knives here.
-
India-exposed names. Sensex crashed 1,600 points. India is the most vulnerable large economy to $100+ oil. Wait for Hormuz resolution.
-
Goldman Sachs (GS) on the dip. Tempting after a beat + 3% drop, but FICC miss signals demand weakness and the macro overhang is real. Wait for JPM/BAC/C tomorrow to get the full picture.
7. WSB/Retail Sentiment
Reddit is not leading the tape today -- geopolitics is. But here is what is trending:
- Block (SQ): Mentions surged 1,375% in 24 hours on WallStreetBets. Unclear catalyst -- possibly fintech-as-inflation-hedge positioning or short squeeze speculation.
- SPY puts: Active discussion around hedging with SPY puts ahead of the blockade. Retail is bearish-leaning.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Remains a constant presence in WSB discussions as the market's AI anchor. Retail still long.
- Space stocks (ASTS, RKLB): The WSB 2026 Index favorites. Unrelated to Hormuz but structurally popular with retail.
- TTD (The Trade Desk): Still getting mentions at 52-week lows. Contrarian retail play.
Sentiment read: Retail is cautious, not panicking. The put-buying activity suggests hedging, not capitulation. This is constructive -- capitulation would be worse.
8. Sunday Follow-Up: Did the Predictions Play Out?
Scenario Check
Sunday's report identified Scenario B (talks collapse) as what happened. Here is how the specific predictions tracked.
| Prediction (Sunday) | Actual (Monday) | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Oil heading toward $102-103 | WTI $104.40-104.80, Brent $101.67-102.30 | Exceeded. Oil overshot the forecast by $2-3. |
| Dow futures -253 pts | Dow futures -481 pts (as low as -580) | Worse than initial Sunday open reading. Monday pre-market deteriorated further. |
| S&P futures ~6,631 area | S&P futures 6,809 | Close. The narrower blockade scope (Iranian ports only, not full strait) prevented a deeper drop. |
| Japan gap down 1-3% | Nikkei -0.74% | Better than predicted. Japan's damage was contained. |
| India not specifically called | Sensex crashed 1,600 pts (-2.08%) | Missed. Should have flagged India's vulnerability as an oil importer. |
| Gold push toward $4,800-4,850 | Gold $4,736, actually DOWN 1.07% | Wrong. Gold sold off on margin calls/liquidity preference. |
| Bitcoin trading as risk asset | BTC $70,964, -0.64% | Correct. BTC continued trading as risk, not haven. |
| VIX spike to 25-30+ | VIX 21.50 (+11.8%) | Partially correct. VIX rose sharply but did not hit 25+. The narrower blockade scope capped fear. |
| CSI 300 complicated picture | CSI 300 +0.21% | Correct call. China actually benefited -- cheaper diverted Iranian oil. |
Hormuz Blockade -- Key Update
The critical new information is the scope distinction: CENTCOM is blocking Iranian port traffic specifically, NOT closing the strait to all traffic. This is meaningfully less severe than Sunday's initial interpretation of Trump's post. It explains why:
- Asian markets did not crash as hard as feared
- Oil overshot $100 but did not hit $110+
- VIX spiked but did not hit 30
However, the escalation risk remains: if Iran retaliates against the naval blockade, the scope could widen to a full strait closure. That remains the tail risk.
Pakistan Ceasefire
- The two-week ceasefire (started April 8) is technically still holding
- Trump says it is "holding well" -- contradictory given the blockade
- Pakistan continues mediating, with FM Ishaq Dar and army chief Asim Munir still engaged
- Iran's FM Araghchi blames US "maximalism" for failed talks
- Next diplomatic step unclear -- no new talks scheduled
Position Sizing Update (from Sunday)
Sunday recommended:
- Energy/defense/commodities: Full position -- CONFIRMED. Execute.
- Broad equity: 50-60% -- CONFIRMED. VIX at 21.5, not panic but not complacent.
- Asia-exposed: 40-50% except Singapore (70-80%) -- ADJUST: Japan did better than feared, keep at 50%. India worse, reduce to 30%.
- Consumer discretionary/travel: Reduce -- CONFIRMED. Airlines down 4-7% in Europe.
The Day Ahead in One Paragraph
The Hormuz blockade is operational as of 10:00 AM ET. Goldman beat on EPS ($17.55 vs $16.34) but missed on FICC and the stock is down 3% because nobody cares about earnings when CENTCOM is blockading a strait. Oil at $104 is the market's master variable -- everything else (bank earnings, housing data, tech sentiment) is subordinate to where crude settles this week. The critical distinction: this is an Iranian port blockade, not a full strait closure. That narrower scope is why the damage is -0.7% on S&P futures instead of -2%. If Iran absorbs the blockade quietly, markets stabilize. If Iran retaliates, VIX goes to 30+ and the vix_spike_buyback trigger fires. Watch Tuesday: PPI + Big Four bank earnings + Section 301 comments = the real gauntlet. Today is about positioning, not panic.
Sources:
- Yahoo Finance: Stock market today -- Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall on Hormuz blockade
- Yahoo Finance: Q1 earnings season kicks off with bank results
- TheStreet: Stock Market Today Apr 13 -- Dow futures fall on Hormuz blockade
- Bloomberg: Oil surges, US futures drop on Hormuz blockade
- CNBC: Dow futures fall 450 points after Trump announces Hormuz blockade
- CNBC: Asia markets trade lower as oil surges after US blockade
- CNBC: European markets -- Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, Iran latest
- CNBC: Goldman Sachs Q1 2026 earnings
- CNBC: Daily Open -- Trump goes from opening Hormuz to blockading it
- Al Jazeera: Iran war live -- US military to block Iranian port traffic
- Al Jazeera: US and Iran fail to reach deal after marathon talks
- CNN: Iran war live updates -- US to blockade ships from Iranian ports
- CNN: Oil prices jump on US plans to blockade Iranian ports
- NBC News: US to launch blockade of Iran's ports
- NPR: US military says it will blockade Iranian ports as peace talks collapse
- PBS: Failed US-Iran negotiations raise questions about fragile ceasefire
- The National: US to begin Hormuz blockade today
- Time: Trump says US will blockade Strait of Hormuz
- OilPrice: Goldman says another month of Hormuz closure means $100+ Brent all 2026
- TradeBrains: US Navy blockade sends WTI and Brent up 8%
- CoinDesk: Oil jumps 7%, Bitcoin extends losses on Hormuz blockade
- Kavout: Is Goldman Sachs primed for a Q1 earnings beat
- IndexBox: Goldman Sachs Q1 2026 earnings preview
- Alphastreet: Bank earnings preview Q1 2026
- FXEmpire: Week ahead -- PPI, Goldman Sachs, Netflix earnings
- Wedbush: $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget
- Motley Fool: Better defense stock -- Lockheed Martin vs RTX
- PGurus: Why Sensex and Nifty fell today -- oil surge, US-Iran crisis
- ANI News: Sensex crashed 1400 points on Hormuz tensions
- TradingEconomics: United States Stock Market Index
- AltIndex: Top trending WallStreetBets stocks
- ApeWisdom: Trending stocks on r/wallstreetbets
- Wikipedia: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
Disclaimer
This content is for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- Backtests use historical data and may not reflect real-world conditions (liquidity, slippage, market impact).
- All strategies tested with simulated capital. No real money was used or is at risk.
- Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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