Thursday, April 16, 2026
S&P 500 above 7,000 for the first time. Nasdaq on an 11-day winning streak. The Iran war is "very close to over." TSMC just crushed earnings. And China GDP beat. This is a market that refuses to stop.
Wednesday was a landmark session. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 (+0.80%), crossing 7,000 for the first time in history. The Nasdaq surged 1.59% to 24,016 -- its 11th consecutive winning session, the longest streak since November 2021 -- closing above 24,000 for the first time. Futures are flat this morning -- the market is digesting an extraordinary amount of good news.
1. Market Snapshot
US Futures (pre-market, approximately 6:00 AM ET)
| Contract | Level | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (ES) | ~7,070 | +0.13% (+9 pts) | Holding above 7,000. Flat after record close. |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQ) | ~26,460 | +0.36% (+95 pts) | Slightly positive. TSMC earnings boost. |
| Dow (YM) | ~48,698 | +0.06% (+29 pts) | Flat. Recovering from yesterday's drag. |
| Russell 2000 (RTY) | ~2,727 | +0.05% (+1 pt) | Small caps barely budging. |
| VIX | 18.22 | -0.14 pts (-0.76%) | Continuing to drip lower. Below 20 = complacency. |
Wednesday's Close (April 15) -- Historic Session
| Index | Close | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,022.95 | +0.80% | First close above 7,000. New all-time high. 10th green session in last 11. |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,016.02 | +1.59% | 11-day winning streak (longest since Nov 2021). Closed above 24,000 for first time. All-time high. |
| Dow | 48,463.72 | -0.15% (-72 pts) | The odd one out. CAT -3.62%, JPM -1.67% dragged. Tech/growth vs. value divergence. |
| Russell 2000 | ~2,725 | +0.05% | Small caps barely moved. Rotation into tech/growth is extreme. |
The divergence is notable: the Nasdaq has rallied 11 straight days while the Dow fell yesterday. This is a market led entirely by tech and AI names. Breadth may become an issue if the Dow continues to lag.
2. Asia Recap (Thursday close)
Asia had a historic session, led by Japan's Nikkei hitting an all-time record high.
| Index | Close | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 59,518 | +2.38% (+1,384 pts) | ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH. Touched 59,569 intraday, near 60,000. Wiped out all Iran war losses. AI stocks led. |
| Hang Seng | 26,322 | +1.44% (+375 pts) | China GDP beat boosted sentiment. Tech names rallied. |
| Shanghai Composite | 4,044 | +0.41% (+17 pts) | Muted despite 5.0% GDP beat. CSI 300 mixed. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" on GDP? |
| KOSPI | ~6,200 area | +~1.8% | Samsung and SK hynix leading. Foreign investors net bought 2.87T won of SK hynix + 1.96T won Samsung in April 1-14. KOSPI +47% YTD. |
| India (BSE Sensex) | 78,089 | Flat (-0.03%) | Opened +566 pts but faded to flat. Classic "gap up, fade" pattern. Oil decline benefit already priced in? |
| ASX 200 | ~8,990 | +0.15% | Flat. Holding gains. |
Key Asia Themes
Nikkei at All-Time High (59,518.34): Japan's benchmark surged to a record, fully erasing its Iran war losses. The rally was broad but led by AI-related names. With the yen weakening (supporting exporters) and oil declining (cutting Japan's import bill), the macro backdrop for Japan is excellent. BOJ rate decision on April 27-28 is the next risk event.
China GDP: 5.0% -- Beat but Muted Reaction: China's Q1 GDP came in at 5.0% YoY, beating the 4.8% consensus and accelerating 0.5pp from Q4 2025. Retail sales +2.4% QoQ (accelerating). Infrastructure investment +11.4% YoY. Yet Shanghai barely moved. The market may have been pricing in the beat (Polymarket had 67.5% probability of 5.0-5.5%). The data is constructive for China ADRs but the reaction suggests limited upside catalyst here.
India Fading: Sensex opened up 566 points on continued oil-decline optimism but faded to flat by the close. This is the third session since India's Tuesday reopening gap-up, and the initial impulse is exhausting. FPIs were net buyers (Rs 666 crore) but the price action suggests near-term consolidation.
Korea Dominant: KOSPI is now +47% YTD, driven by Samsung and SK hynix (40.9% of total KOSPI market cap, up from 34% at year-end). SK hynix is raising $10B via ADRs for Yongin fab expansion. Samsung unveiled HBM4 memory for AI accelerators. The semi supercycle is real.
3. Europe Now (Thursday morning)
European markets are mixed after Wednesday's selloff.
| Index | Level | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ~24,000 area | Mixed | Recovering after Wednesday's -0.4% session. |
| CAC 40 | ~8,280 area | Mixed | Kering -9.3% yesterday on Gucci sales miss dragged luxury. |
| FTSE 100 | ~10,600 area | Flat | Energy weighting remains a drag as oil declines. |
| Stoxx 600 | -- | ~Flat | Yesterday's -0.4% was first down day in three sessions. |
Europe Context
Wednesday was notable for the ASML selloff: despite beating Q1 estimates (revenue EUR 8.8B, net income EUR 2.8B) and raising full-year guidance to EUR 36-40B, ASML stock fell ~4-6% on (1) tightening China export controls (China sales dropped to 19% from 36% of revenue), (2) Q2 guidance slightly below consensus (EUR 8.4-9.0B vs EUR 9.1B expected), and (3) Q2 gross margin guidance of 51-52% (below current 53%). The Kering/Gucci selloff (-9.3%) also hit luxury sentiment. European markets may stabilize today on the Nikkei record and China GDP beat.
4. Economic Calendar
Today -- Thursday, April 16
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus/Actual | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before open | PepsiCo (PEP) Q1 earnings | Est. EPS $1.55, Rev $18.95B | Consumer staples bellwether. Polymarket 96% implied probability of EPS beat. Focus on margins amid food inflation. |
| Before open | TSMC (TSM) Q1 earnings | REPORTED: Net income NT$572.5B ($18.1B, +58% YoY). Revenue $35.9B (+35% TWD / +41% USD). Gross margin 66.2%. Operating margin 58.1%. | Massive beat. Guidance: Q2 rev $39-40.2B (above $38.1B est.), FY26 rev growth close to 30%. HPC >60% of revenue (AI demand "extremely robust"). |
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) | Est. ~215K (prior 219K) | Labor market health check. Prior week was higher than expected at 219K. |
| 8:30 AM | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey | Est. 10.3 (prior 18.1) | Significant decline expected. War-related uncertainty weighing on manufacturing sentiment per Beige Book. |
| 9:15 AM | Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization | -- | Manufacturing activity and resource utilization. |
| 10:00 AM | Business Inventories | -- | Inventory build/drawdown. |
| After close | Netflix (NFLX) Q1 earnings | Est. EPS $0.76, Rev $12.17B | Ad-supported tier momentum and live sports foray are key focus areas. |
Yesterday's Key Releases
Beige Book (April 15): Reported "slight-to-modest" growth across most Fed districts. The Middle East conflict was cited as a "pervasive" source of uncertainty affecting hiring, pricing, and capital investment. Farmers face surging fertilizer prices. Low-to-moderate income populations seeing worsened financial conditions from persistent inflation. Consumer spending increased slightly. The "wait-and-see" posture is notable -- businesses are hesitant to commit.
Bank of America (BAC) Q1: EPS $1.11 vs $1.01 est. (BEAT +10%). Revenue $30.3B. Investment banking fees +21%. NII climbed 9% to $15.7B. Strong across the board.
Morgan Stanley (MS) Q1: EPS $3.43 vs $3.02 est. (BEAT +14%). Revenue $20.6B -- first time crossing $20B in a quarter. Investment banking +36%. Equities trading +25% to record $5.1B. Wealth management revenue $8.5B (record).
Rest of the Week
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Today | TSMC full results (reported), NFLX after close, PEP before open | AI thesis (TSM), consumer streaming (NFLX), consumer staples (PEP) |
| Fri Apr 18 | Normal trading day | Regular session. |
| Mon Apr 21 | US Retail Sales (March). Iran ceasefire expiration date. | Double catalyst. If ceasefire lapses without extension or deal, risk reprices. |
| Apr 27-28 | BOJ rate decision (rate at 0.75%) | Could hike. Nikkei at record -- yen impact critical. |
5. TSMC Earnings -- The Main Event
TSMC reported Q1 2026 earnings this morning (before Asian market open). This is the most important single earnings report this week for the AI trade.
Key Numbers
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $35.9B | $35.6B | BEAT |
| Net Income | NT$572.5B (~$18.1B) | ~$11.5B prior year | +58% YoY |
| Gross Margin | 66.2% | 57-59% guided | MASSIVE BEAT (highest forward margins ever guided) |
| Operating Margin | 58.1% | 54-56% guided | Beat high end by 2+ pp |
| EPS | TWD 22.08 | -- | ROE 40.5% |
Guidance (Q2 and Full Year)
| Period | Metric | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | Revenue | $39.0-40.2B (vs $38.1B consensus) -- above consensus |
| Q2 2026 | Gross Margin | 65.5-67.5% (sustained at high levels) |
| FY 2026 | Revenue Growth | "Close to 30%" in USD terms |
| FY 2026 | CapEx | $52-56B (raised from prior guidance) |
| Long-term | Gross Margin Target | 56%+ through the cycle (revised upward) |
What This Means
- AI demand is "extremely robust" -- CEO CC Wei's words. HPC (high-performance computing, which includes AI accelerators) now accounts for >60% of TSMC revenue, up from mobile-dominated just 2 years ago.
- Gross margin 66.2% is extraordinary. This is pricing power. TSMC can charge whatever it wants because there is no alternative for leading-edge chips.
- Q2 guidance above consensus -- unlike ASML, which guided Q2 below. TSMC is the primary beneficiary of the AI buildout.
- 2nm ramp will dilute margins 2-3% for FY26 but investors will look through this to the revenue opportunity.
- ASML sold off -6% despite beat+raised. Will TSM do the same? The ASML selloff was driven by China export controls and Q2 margin guidance miss -- neither of which applies to TSMC. TSM's Q2 guidance is ABOVE consensus. The setup is different. Expect TSM to open higher.
6. News & Events
Trump: Iran War "Very Close to Over"
President Trump told Fox Business on Wednesday that the Iran war is "very close to over" and that Iran "wants to make a deal very badly." Key details:
- Ceasefire extension: The US and Iran have an "in principle agreement" to extend the two-week ceasefire (originally set to expire April 21) to allow for more diplomacy.
- Second round of talks: Expected in Islamabad within days. Pakistan is facilitating.
- But: The US has "not formally agreed" to the ceasefire extension. The blockade of Iranian ports remains "fully implemented" -- 10 ships turned back. Israel says it's ready to strike if ceasefire ends without a deal.
- Sticking points: Strait of Hormuz reopening (US red line) and Iran's nuclear enrichment.
- King Charles visit deadline: April 27. Trump hinted he'd like resolution before then.
Market read: This is the single most important variable for the market right now. Oil continues declining on deal optimism. The S&P 500's entire 10-session rally has been built on de-escalation hopes. The April 21 ceasefire expiration (now potentially extended) and the ongoing Islamabad talks are the catalysts to watch. If talks collapse, oil reverses to $100+ and the rally unwinds.
Broadcom (AVGO) + Meta: Multibillion-Dollar AI Chip Deal
Broadcom surged to $393 after announcing a deal with Meta to co-design custom AI accelerator chips (MTIA) through 2029. Meta committed to deploying >1 GW of computing capacity using Broadcom's ASICs. Analysts estimate $12-15B revenue opportunity over 24 months. This is Broadcom's third major AI partnership in April (after Google and Anthropic). The custom silicon trend is accelerating -- every hyperscaler now wants its own chips.
Beige Book: "Wait-and-See" Economy
The Fed's Beige Book painted a mixed picture: "slight-to-modest" growth but pervasive war-related uncertainty. Businesses are hesitant to hire, invest, or price aggressively. Farmers face surging fertilizer costs. Low-income populations are struggling with inflation. Consumer spending is slightly positive but cautious. This is not a Beige Book that screams "rate hike" -- it supports the Fed staying on hold.
Bank Earnings: Clean Sweep
All four major bank earnings this week (JPM, C, BAC, MS) beat EPS estimates. Morgan Stanley was the star, crossing $20B quarterly revenue for the first time with record equities trading ($5.1B) and investment banking +36%. The bank earnings picture is unambiguously positive -- the best Q1 in years for Wall Street.
| Bank | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Beat | Key Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan (JPM) | $5.94 | $5.46 | +9% | Record trading revenue $11.6B |
| Citigroup (C) | $3.06 | $2.63 | +16% | ROTCE 13.1%, highest since 2021 |
| Bank of America (BAC) | $1.11 | $1.01 | +10% | NII +9% to $15.7B |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | $3.43 | $3.02 | +14% | First $20B+ revenue quarter, equities record |
7. Commodities & Currencies
| Asset | Level | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | ~$91-92 | Flat to -1% | Stabilizing in $91-92 range after $13 drop Mon-Wed. Iran deal optimism baked in. |
| Brent Crude | ~$95 | Flat | Off Monday's $104 highs. Still elevated vs pre-crisis. |
| Gold | $4,822 | -0.03% | Essentially flat at ~$4,820-4,824. Haven bid muted but gold not selling off either. |
| GLD (ETF) | ~$437-440 | Flat | Tracking spot gold. |
| Bitcoin | $74,576 | +0.08% | Stable above $74K. Prediction markets: 72% chance of $74-76K range today. ETF inflows remain strong ($12.4B in Q1). |
| Ethereum | $2,338-2,358 | +1.0% | Slight uptick. Range-bound. |
| Copper | ~$6.07/lb | +0.07% | Near 2-month highs. +30% YoY. Fully recovered Iran war losses on deal optimism. |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | ~98.0 | Flat | Dollar weakness continues (8th straight session of decline). Supports commodities. |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | ~4.30% | Flat | Stable. Beige Book "wait-and-see" tone keeps yields in check. |
Oil Stabilization
After falling $13 in 48 hours (Monday $104 to Wednesday $91), WTI appears to be stabilizing in the $91-92 range. The Iran deal optimism is now priced in at this level. The next move depends on:
- If ceasefire is formally extended: oil could drift to $85-88
- If talks collapse: snap back to $100+ immediately
- The April 21 expiration date (potentially extended) is the binary event
8. Strategy Triggers
VIX at 18.22 -- Complacency Deepening
VIX continues to drip lower. At 18.22, it's well below the 25 alert and 30 trigger levels. The 11-day Nasdaq winning streak has suppressed volatility entirely. Vol strategies remain dormant. However, this level of complacency ahead of the April 21 ceasefire expiration is itself a risk indicator -- if anything goes wrong, the snap in VIX will be violent.
Oil at $91-92 -- Stabilizing After the Crash
| # | Strategy | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | warflation_hedge | REDUCE further. Oil has stabilized at $91-92, down $13 from Monday. If ceasefire extends formally, the war premium continues to deflate. Midstream benefits (EPD, ET, WMB) shrinking. | Trim remaining overweight. The trade is maturing. |
| 35 | oil_down_tech_up | APPROACHING TRIGGER. Oil down 12% from Monday's $104. Tech rallying for 11 straight days. If oil breaks below $90 on formal ceasefire extension, this strategy fires cleanly. | Monitor $90 level. Very close. |
| 82 | defense_budget_floor | HOLD. $1T defense budget for 2026, $1.5T projected for 2027. LMT record $194B backlog. PAC-3 production ramping 600 to 2,000 units/year. Structural thesis intact regardless of ceasefire. | Hold. News-agnostic position. |
| 88 | vix_spike_buyback | STAND DOWN. VIX at 18.22. No fear signal. | No action. |
| 30 | uranium_renaissance | HOLD. CCJ ~$116.70, stable. Uranium at $85.45/lb. Nuclear-as-energy-security thesis strengthened by Hormuz crisis. | Quiet hold. No change. |
TSMC Earnings -- AI Trade Validation
| Strategy | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|
| ai_token_economy (#2) | STRONG BUY signal. TSMC gross margin 66.2%, revenue +35% (TWD) / +41% (USD), HPC >60% of sales, Q2 guidance above consensus. This is the strongest confirmation of AI infrastructure demand in months. | Core position validated. TSM, NVDA, AVGO all benefit. |
| Broadcom thesis | ACCELERATING. AVGO at $393 after Meta deal. Third major AI partnership in April (Google, Anthropic, Meta). $12-15B revenue pipeline from Meta alone. | AVGO is the custom silicon winner. |
Asia Strategies -- Updated
| Strategy | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|
| korean_chaebols | STRONG. KOSPI +47% YTD. Foreign investors buying aggressively (4.83T won net in April 1-14). Samsung HBM4 unveiled. SK hynix raising $10B via ADRs. Semi supercycle is real. | Hold/add on any dip. The trend is powerful. |
| japan_industrial_finance | STRONG BUY. Nikkei at ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH of 59,518. Oil decline + yen weakness = perfect storm for Japanese exporters. BOJ April 27-28 is risk. | Add ahead of BOJ. If BOJ holds, Nikkei breaks 60,000. |
| china_adr_deep_value | MIXED. GDP beat at 5.0% but Shanghai reaction was muted (+0.41%). "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Retail sales accelerating (+2.4% QoQ) is constructive. | Small position. The catalyst has passed without a strong reaction. |
| singapore_alpha | HOLD. Steady. No change. DBS/UOB/OCBC dividend yields remain structural. | Hold. |
| India strategies | FADING. Sensex gap-up from Tuesday is exhausting. Wednesday's +566 open faded to flat. Near-term consolidation likely. | Wait for pullback to add. Initial impulse is done. |
Bank Earnings -- All Clear
| Strategy | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Bank-exposed strategies | POSITIVE. All four major banks beat. MS record quarter. BAC NII +9%. Citi turnaround accelerating. The Q1 bank earnings season is the strongest in years. | Bank thesis validated. No urgency to add -- already running. |
Tech Momentum
| Strategy | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $198.87 at Wednesday close. Holding near $200. TSMC earnings confirm AI demand intact. | Hold. $200 is resistance; TSMC beat should provide a push. |
| META | -- | Broadcom partnership (>1 GW AI compute) signals META is going all-in on AI infrastructure. |
| AVGO | $392.97 at Wednesday close. Up from ~$368 low. Meta deal + Google + Anthropic partnerships. | Momentum strong. Third AI deal in a month. |
Consumer
| Strategy | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|
| wealth_barometer | FADING. Oil declining reduces gas price squeeze. Beige Book notes consumer spending "slightly positive." PEP earnings this morning will give read on consumer health. | Deprioritize unless PEP misses badly. |
9. Yesterday's Predictions -- Scorecard
| Prediction (Wednesday report) | Actual (Wednesday close + Thursday pre-market) | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| S&P futures -0.06% (flat consolidation) | S&P closed +0.80% at record 7,022.95. Much stronger than "flat" suggested. | DIRECTION WRONG -- underestimated strength |
| Nasdaq futures -0.07% (flat) | Nasdaq +1.59%, 11th straight win. Massive outperformance vs flat call. | DIRECTION WRONG -- significantly underestimated |
| VIX 18.36, fear subdued | VIX now 18.22. Continuing to drip lower. Correct read on complacency. | CORRECT |
| BAC/MS earnings: "if both beat, narrative flips positive" | Both beat decisively. BAC +10%, MS +14% vs estimates. Correct call. | CORRECT |
| ASML beat helping semis | ASML fell 4-6% despite beat. China export controls spooked. Wrong on direction of ASML stock. | WRONG -- beat did not help ASML stock |
| Oil $91-93 "most important variable" | Oil stabilized at $91-92. Correct identification of key variable. | CORRECT |
| Korean chaebols "add aggressively" | KOSPI continued higher. TSMC beat validates semi thesis. Good call. | CORRECT |
| TSMC Thursday = "marquee tech event" | TSMC crushed: 66.2% GM, +58% profit, guidance above consensus. Correctly identified as key. | CORRECT |
| China GDP "major catalyst" for Asia | GDP 5.0% beat but Shanghai barely moved (+0.41%). Nikkei was the real story. Catalyst was muted for China specifically. | PARTIALLY CORRECT |
| Iran: "April 21 is hard deadline" | "In principle agreement" to extend ceasefire. Not as hard as stated. | PARTIALLY CORRECT |
Batting average: 5 correct, 2 partially correct, 3 wrong = 60% accuracy (improved from 56%)
Key Lessons
- Do not underestimate momentum. The Nasdaq has won 11 straight sessions. Calling "flat" after 9 wins was wrong -- momentum begets momentum until it doesn't.
- "Beat and raised" does not guarantee stock goes up. ASML proved this. Export controls and Q2 margin guidance matter more than backward-looking beats in some cases. The question for TSMC today is whether Q2 guidance ABOVE consensus protects it from the same fate.
- The Dow divergence is real. The rotation into tech/growth and away from industrials/financials is accelerating. Breadth is narrowing.
10. Trade Ideas
High Conviction
-
TSMC (TSM) -- the ASML comparison resolves favorably. ASML fell despite beat+raised because of China export controls and Q2 margin miss. TSMC has neither issue: no China concentration risk (TSMC is the vendor, not the one being restricted), and Q2 guidance is ABOVE consensus ($39-40.2B vs $38.1B). Gross margin 66.2% is extraordinary pricing power. This should open higher.
-
Korean Chaebols -- the trend is your friend. KOSPI +47% YTD. Samsung HBM4 unveiled. SK hynix raising $10B for fab expansion. Foreign investors pouring money in. TSMC's beat validates the semiconductor cycle that Korea is riding. korean_chaebols strategy continues to fire.
-
Japan (Nikkei) -- all-time highs with room to run. Nikkei at 59,518, near 60,000. Oil decline helps Japan's energy import bill. Yen weakness helps exporters. AI stocks leading. BOJ on April 27-28 is risk but if they hold, 60,000 breaks. japan_industrial_finance.
Moderate Conviction
-
AVGO -- custom silicon winner. Three major AI partnerships in April (Google, Anthropic, Meta). $12-15B pipeline from Meta alone. At $393, it's off lows but the deal pipeline justifies momentum.
-
Netflix (NFLX) after close. EPS est. $0.76, Rev $12.17B. Ad-supported tier and live sports are the key metrics. If NFLX beats, it adds to the tech momentum narrative. If it misses, the impact on the broader tape is limited.
Watch/Avoid
-
Do not chase the 11-day Nasdaq streak. This is the longest since November 2021 and historically, such streaks are followed by at least a 1-2 day pause. The April 21 ceasefire deadline is the key risk event this week. Let the market come to you.
-
Oil shorts remain dangerous. While oil has stabilized at $91-92, any collapse in Iran talks sends it back to $100+ instantly. The April 21 expiration date (even if extended) creates binary risk. Do not bet on further oil decline from here.
-
China on GDP beat. Shanghai's muted +0.41% reaction to a GDP beat tells you the market had already priced this in. Avoid adding to China positions on the GDP print alone.
11. WSB/Retail Sentiment
The WallStreetBets 2026 Index continues to reflect a more sophisticated retail investor: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS, +241% on satellite deployment), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Alphabet, Amazon, Nebius Group, Reddit, Micron, IREN, Tesla, and Palantir.
TSMC earnings will likely drive discussion today, along with the Broadcom-Meta AI deal. Expect continued quantum computing chatter (IONQ, QBTS) after yesterday's DARPA-driven surges, though those moves may consolidate.
Netflix earnings after close will be the evening headline. The retail crowd has been generally bullish on streaming names.
The Day Ahead in One Paragraph
The S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time yesterday and the Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 11 days. Overnight, TSMC crushed earnings with 66.2% gross margins and $18.1B in profit, confirming that AI infrastructure demand is "extremely robust." China GDP beat at 5.0%. The Nikkei hit an all-time record. Trump says the Iran war is "very close to over" with a ceasefire extension agreement "in principle." Futures are flat this morning as the market digests a remarkable convergence of positive catalysts. Today's data: initial claims (8:30 AM), Philly Fed manufacturing (8:30 AM), and PepsiCo earnings before the bell. Netflix reports after close. The big risk remains the same: April 21 ceasefire expiration. Friday April 18 is a normal trading day (Good Friday was April 3). Positioning ahead of that weekend -- with the Iran deadline looming -- may cause some late-day profit-taking. The market wants to go higher, but 11 days of Nasdaq gains is a lot of good news already priced in.
Sources:
- Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for first time, Nasdaq hits record
- TheStreet: S&P 500 closes at new record of 7,022.95
- CNBC: Stock futures inch higher following record-setting day
- CNBC: Japan's Nikkei 225 hits record high as hopes for US-Iran deal fuel broader rally
- Bloomberg: Japan's Nikkei closes at record high, wiping out Iran war losses
- Nippon.com: Nikkei hits all-time intra-day high near 60,000
- Chinadaily: China records 5% GDP growth in Q1 2026
- Investing.com: China GDP grows 5% in Q1, beats expectations
- GurufFocus: TSMC reports record Q1 earnings amid strong AI infrastructure demand
- Investing.com: TSMC Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
- Sherwood News: TSMC Q1 earnings crush estimates, lifts full-year sales guidance
- CNBC: TSMC posts 35% jump in revenue to record high
- Barchart: Trade the April 16 TSMC earnings report
- CNBC: Iran war "very close to over," Trump says
- CBS News: Trump says Iran war "close to over" as Pakistan pushes for peace talks
- CNN: White House optimistic about Iran deal as key Pakistani negotiator visits Tehran
- Time: Trump says Iran war "close to over," hints at deadline ahead of royal visit
- Artvoice: AVGO stock surging after Broadcom lands biggest deal of the year
- Benzinga: Broadcom jumps, Meta deal signals multi-gigawatt AI buildout
- Motley Fool: Broadcom expands Meta AI chip deal
- FinancialContent: Morgan Stanley shatters records with Q1 2026 performance
- FinancialContent: Bank of America shatters Q1 2026 estimates
- CNBC: Morgan Stanley Q1 2026 earnings
- CNBC: ASML stock sinks amid tightening China restrictions despite strong earnings
- Motley Fool: Why ASML stock is sinking today
- Bloomberg: Fed's Beige Book says war drives uncertainty for US companies
- Atlanta Fed: Beige Book reports modest growth, pervasive war-related uncertainty
- Seoul Economic Daily: Foreign investors turn buyers, scoop up Samsung and SK hynix
- Seoul Economic Daily: Samsung, SK hynix eye KOSPI 6,200
- BusinessToday: Why Sensex, Nifty turned flat in late trade
- TradingEconomics: Copper at $6.07
- TradingEconomics: Gold at $4,822
- TradingEconomics: US 10Y yield at 4.30%
- Phemex: Bitcoin price analysis April 16
- CoinDesk: Ethereum at $2,337
- Fortune: Gold price April 15
- Fortune: Oil price April 15
- AltIndex: WallStreetBets top stock picks 2026
- Kiplinger: Nasdaq hits longest win streak since 2023
- PBS: Wall Street hits record as S&P 500 continues 2-week rally
- TradinqNews: S&P 500 nears record, Nasdaq 11-day streak, AVGO surges on Meta deal
Disclaimer
This content is for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- Backtests use historical data and may not reflect real-world conditions (liquidity, slippage, market impact).
- All strategies tested with simulated capital. No real money was used or is at risk.
- Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
- The authors and contributors accept no responsibility for financial losses from using this information.
- Securities mentioned are not buy/sell recommendations. Do your own due diligence.
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