Bonds Down Banks Up

Rising rates crush bonds but boost banks (wider NIM) + insurance (float income). TLT↓ = XLF↑.

Bonds Down → Banks Up (Rate Rotation)

Total Return

+34.0%

Sharpe Ratio

0.51

Max Drawdown

-20.4%

Win Rate

54.5%

Alpha

-12.8%

Comp. Score *

0.06

Risk Parameters

Max Allocation8.5%

Stop Loss15.0%

Take Profit8.0%

Max DD Tolerance20.3%

Rebalanceweekly

Execution Guidance

Order TypeMarket

Entry RuleEnter immediately when trigger fires. Speed matters more than price.

TimingSAFE TO BUY. *

ScalingFull position at trigger. No scaling — the signal is binary.

Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing

Symbol	Action	Vol	Stop Loss	Take Profit	Size	Links
JPM	BUY	25%	16.0% below entry	8.6% above entry	7.9%	TV YH
GS	BUY	31%	19.7% below entry	10.5% above entry	6.5%	TV YH
TLT	BUY	13%	7.9% below entry	4.2% above entry	16.1%	TV YH

▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -33% drawdown to return 77% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.

Avg 5Y Return

33.3%

Avg 5Y Sharpe

0.2

10Y Return

77.4%

10Y Sharpe

0.21

HODL Composite

0.21

Consistency

64%

Suitable for passive