Sunday, September 13, 2026

The week of September 7–11 closed the CPI gate: August headline CPI printed +3.4% YoY / +0.4% MoM — precisely at consensus but above Governor Waller's stated hold condition — sending September 16 FOMC hike odds from ~70% pre-CPI to ~90% post-CPI by Friday's close; markets responded with relief rather than alarm (S&P +0.86%, Dow +0.98%, Nasdaq +0.96% on Friday, VIX −11.21% to 15.84) as oil pulled back sharply (WTI from $102+ intraday highs to $100.05, Brent to $104.61) after Iran-Oman diplomatic signals emerged, and Oracle's AI cloud beat-and-raise — cloud revenue +62% YoY to $11.6B, AI infrastructure +121% to $7.4B, more than $30B in AI contracts signed in a single quarter with demand exceeding supply — briefly re-ignited the AI monetization narrative; the week of September 14–18 opens with three concurrent central bank decisions (FOMC Wednesday +25bp to 3.75–4.00% at 90% odds, BoE Thursday hold at 3.75%, BoJ Friday +25bp to 1.25% at 89% odds), a potential Hormuz diplomatic window as Iran and Oman convene in Muscat Monday to sign a 60-day shipping lane trial, and a Sunday Qeshm vessel strike (1 dead, 4 injured, UKMTO reported) confirming the conflict's violence did not pause for the negotiations.

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1. Sunday Futures Open (6 PM ET)

The dominant organizing force entering the Sunday open: FOMC hike at ~90% probability (Wednesday September 16) is the most pre-decided Fed meeting since Warsh's Jackson Hole pivot began this cycle. The week's residual uncertainty concentrates on the dot plot (one-and-done vs. further 2026 hikes), Warsh's presser tone, and the Iran-Oman 60-day route trial. Oil's pullback from $100+ to $96.62 Sunday (WTI) reflects the Iran-Oman diplomatic signal; the 10Y at ~4.96% approaching the 5.0% threshold is the market's structural rate-environment read. Net Sunday bias: flat to modestly negative on broad indices (hike fully priced = no remaining dovish upside before Wednesday); energy complex pulling back on Iran-Oman route hope; gold under 10Y/dollar headwind; yen firming ahead of BoJ. Verify live levels before trading.

Oil, Gold & Safe Havens — Sunday Opening Bias

What to watch at 6 PM ET Sunday: Three forces organize the open: (1) Iran-Oman Muscat meeting Monday — the first formal signing of a Hormuz shipping route since the conflict began; oil's reaction (WTI $96.62 entering Sunday) is the first market verdict on whether this is a substantive framework or a face-saving gesture; (2) FOMC pre-positioning — with 90% hike odds the market has no dovish upside before Wednesday; equities drift flat to slightly lower as investors reduce directional risk; (3) BoJ unanimity — all 52 Bloomberg-surveyed BOJ watchers project a hike Friday; the yen's path (153–155) is the Asia week's structural signal.

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2. Weekend Developments

CPI August: +3.4% YoY — Waller's Condition Fails, FOMC Hike Odds Surge to 90%

Friday September 11, the BLS released August CPI: headline +0.4% MoM / +3.4% YoY, precisely in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Core CPI: +0.3% MoM (beat; Dow Jones consensus was +0.2%) / +2.4% YoY (in line) — core MoM above consensus, core YoY in line. Gasoline drove over one-third of the monthly increase (+3.9%), reflecting the Brent/WTI surge from August's conflict escalation. The reading directly failed Governor Waller's September 3 stated condition — "I'd be inclined to support holding if CPI confirms disinflation" — as the disinflation trajectory has stalled: the core MoM beat in particular drove the surge in FOMC hike odds.

Market reaction was counterintuitive: relief dominated. The absence of a "hot" print (≥+3.5%) removed the tail risk of a deeply hawkish surprise, and oil's simultaneous pullback from its intraday highs was a welcome de-stressor after four straight down sessions. S&P 500 +0.86%, Dow +0.98%, Nasdaq +0.96%; VIX collapsed −11.21% to 15.84. But the rate-market verdict was unambiguous: FOMC hike odds surged from ~70% pre-CPI (CME FedWatch, Thursday September 10) to ~90% post-CPI (CME FedWatch, September 11–12). The September 16 decision is effectively made. fomc_announcement

Oracle Q1 FY27: AI Cloud Demand Exceeds Supply; >$30B Contracts in One Quarter

Oracle reported Thursday September 10 after-hours: Q1 FY27 EPS $1.92 vs. $1.74E (+10.34% beat); revenue $19.35B vs. $19.13B (+1.15% beat, +30% YoY). Cloud revenue grew +62% to $11.6B; AI infrastructure specifically grew +121% to $7.4B. Oracle signed more than $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts in a single quarter — and disclosed that "customer demand for AI cloud training and inferencing services continues to grow faster than supply." FY27 guidance raised to at minimum $90B revenue and $8.10 adjusted EPS; Q2 cloud growth guided 64–70%.

Initial after-hours reaction was −7.02% as the financing and capex overhang (the predicted risk from Sep 10 report) dominated the immediate tape. But on Friday September 11, Oracle reversed: the AI demand-exceeds-supply disclosure and the FY27 guidance raise re-ignited AI confidence, with the stock trimming its after-hours losses significantly. The net signal is the strongest enterprise AI demand validation since Snowflake's +23% CoCo announcement approximately one week prior. ai_infra_picks_shovels

Adobe and RH AH September 10: CEO Transition and Luxury Demand Crack

Adobe (ADBE): Q3 FY26 revenue $6.76B (+13% YoY); non-GAAP EPS $6.13 vs. $6.08E (small beat); FY26 guidance raised. CEO transition (formally announced September 3, 2026, one week prior) re-surfaced in Q3 slides — an overhang that the modest beat could not offset; stock fell −2.14% after-hours. The guide-precision regime's verdict: a small beat without a clear raise above consensus is not enough in this tape.

RH (RH): Q2 adjusted EPS $2.70, a significant beat vs. consensus ($2.31 above estimate, ~592% surprise); revenue $922.2M vs. $915.44M consensus (beat, +0.74%, +2.6% YoY). Stock +7.05% after-hours to $143.47.

Early Sunday, September 13: Iranian Vessel Struck in Strait of Hormuz

Early Sunday, September 13 (approximately 5:00 am local time), an Iranian commercial vessel was struck near Qeshm and Hengam Islands in the Strait of Hormuz; Iranian state media reported 1 killed and 4 injured, with a fire breaking out onboard. The UKMTO (UK Maritime Trade Operations) reported the attack by an unknown projectile while the vessel was transiting the Strait. Local authorities assisted in crew evacuation. The US has not commented on the incident.

The attack occurred hours before Sunday's reports of the Iran-Oman Muscat meeting — underscoring that diplomatic progress and kinetic violence are running simultaneously. Traffic through the Strait remains approximately 93–95% below pre-conflict levels. geopolitical_crisis

Iran-Oman Muscat Meeting Monday: 60-Day Shipping Route Trial to Be Signed

Officials from Iran and Gulf countries are set to convene in Muscat, Oman on Monday September 14 to formally sign an agreement establishing an Iran-Oman shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed framework structures vessels entering the Gulf through a northern lane in Iranian waters and vessels leaving through a southern lane in Omani waters, with a 60-day trial period and no transit fees. This is the first formal framework for partial Hormuz reopening since the conflict began February 28, 2026.

The oil market's reaction is already visible in Sunday's pullback (WTI ~$96.62 from $100.05 Friday). The critical question is whether the route becomes operational within the 60-day window or whether Sunday's vessel strike signals that enforcement of the route will itself be contested. warflation_hedge

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3. Asia Monday Outlook

Asia opens Monday September 14 with three key inputs: Friday's US relief rally (+0.86% S&P), the Iran-Oman Muscat signing Monday (potential Hormuz diplomatic catalyst, oil at $96.62 Sunday), and universal BoJ hike expectation for Friday September 18. FOMC two-day meeting begins Tuesday September 15 — Monday is pure pre-positioning; no decision until Wednesday.

Key Asia structural note — Monday: The KOSPI's HBM demand signal from Oracle is Asia's most directly actionable positive Monday. The Nikkei faces a constructive-but-capped dynamic: Friday's US rally is positive, but the BoJ hike Friday is yen-strengthening and exporters will price this increasingly through the week. Watch USD/JPY at 152–153 as the BoJ's preemptive lower bound — a break below 153 would signal the yen's appreciation trajectory is ahead of schedule. Hang Seng's reaction to the Iran-Oman Muscat meeting outcome (announced Monday) is the region's geopolitical swing variable.

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4. Saturday Weekly Follow-Up

Thursday September 10 Predictions — Scorecard

Grading the 10 predictions from the Thursday, September 10, 2026 pre-market brief against verified results.

Score: 7 CORRECT · 2 WRONG · 1 UNVERIFIED = 78% verified correct.

The Oracle prediction (#8) and the Macy's prediction (#7) were the two misses. Oracle's was a narrow one — The after-hours move was −7.02%, just below the ±8% absolute threshold the prediction set. The directional call (skewed lower) was validated by the initial reaction: the capex and equity-raise dilution concern that the Sep 10 brief identified as the dominant risk did dominate the first AH print. The magnitude miss reflects a structural nuance in how Oracle's financing story interacted with the AI beat: the initial tape was driven by short-sellers and index arb rebalancing, not a fundamental negative, which is why the stock recovered the next day when the >$30B AI contracts and demand-exceeds-supply disclosures were digested at market open.Predictions 1, 2, 4, and 5 confirmed the core thesis of the session: energy (Brent above $100, XLE outperformance, options call skew alignment) was the day's only clean directional long — exactly as the Sep 10 brief framed it — while the macro (PPI, VIX, 10Y) all closed within predicted ranges.

Week of September 7–11, 2026 Summary

The week's defining pattern: The CPI print was simultaneously the expected outcome and the most consequential single data point of the quarter — printing exactly at consensus (+3.4% YoY headline) while the core MoM beat (+0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus) converted a genuine coin-flip FOMC into a near-certainty (90%). Markets found relief in the "not hot" framing while the rate market priced the hike decisively. Oracle's after-hours arc (−7% AH on financing overhang → recovery on Sep 11 as AI demand signal dominates) is the earnings narrative in miniature: in the guide-precision regime, even a +10.34% EPS beat that initially sells off can reverse when the underlying demand reality (demand exceeding supply, $30B+ contracts) is undeniable. The week's defining earnings story: SHOE's guide-and-miss cascade (−21%) and two consecutive ISM services employment sub-50 prints (47.8 in August) are the consumer-credit-stress signals visible in the macro and micro simultaneously.

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5. Commodities

Oil context: The Iran-Oman route trial being signed Monday is the first formal partial-reopening framework in the conflict. The 60-day structure (60 days, north/south lanes, no fees) addresses the commercial operator's primary obstacle: legal clarity on which channel is safe. If commercial operators resume routing through the agreed lanes within the first two weeks, the blockade premium could de-rate partially. If Sunday's Qeshm vessel strike and the US blockade of Iranian ports prevent operationalization, the route trial becomes a face-saving formality and oil returns to its $100+ structural floor.

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6. Monday Calendar (September 14)

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7. Week Ahead (September 14–18, 2026)

The week has one organizing logic: the most consequential policy week of Q3, with the FOMC, BoE, and BoJ all deciding in a 72-hour window. FOMC hike at 90% probability is the base case; the dot plot and Warsh's presser carry the actual forward-guidance surprise. BoJ unanimity (all 52 economists forecast hike) makes Friday the yen-carry structural pivot. BoE holds at 3.75% (consensus). The Iran-Oman Muscat signing Monday is the geopolitical swing variable.

The week's organizing logic: Monday and Tuesday are pure FOMC pre-positioning; Wednesday is the apex (2 PM decision, 2:30 PM Warsh presser, 8:30 AM Retail Sales); Thursday absorbs the FOMC aftermath and BoE's hold; Friday's BoJ hike closes the three-central-bank sequence. The market's unresolved question entering this week is not "will the Fed hike?" (90% says yes) but "what comes next?" — a hawkish dot plot projecting further hikes extends the dollar bid and compresses equities toward 7,500–7,600; a pause-signaling dot (one-and-done framing) is a dovish surprise that could rally equities 1.5–2.5%.

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8. Strategy Signals

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9. Scenario A / Scenario B / Scenario C

Scenario A: FOMC Hikes + Pause-Signaling Dot Plot → Relief Rally (20%)

FOMC hikes 25bp as expected (3.50–3.75% → 3.75–4.00%) but the dot plot's 2026–27 rate path signals one-and-done: no additional 2026 hikes in the median projection, and 2027 shows the beginning of rate cuts. Warsh's presser frames the hike as "completing the disinflation campaign" and describes the current rate level as "sufficiently restrictive given the trajectory." September 16 FOMC becomes a "buy the news" event after four weeks of pre-positioning.

S&P 500 rallies to 7,800–7,950 by Friday September 19 close (rate-relief lifts growth multiples); Nasdaq leads (+1.5% to +2.5%); VIX falls to 13–14. DXY eases to 98.5–99.0; gold recovers to $4,450–4,550 (rate-headwind reverses); 10Y compresses to 4.60–4.70%. BTC rallies to $81,000–84,000 (risk-on + Clarity Act bid + ETF inflows = confluence). BoJ hike Friday is absorbed smoothly (differential unchanged → USD/JPY 153–155 range holds). Oil $94–99 (Iran-Oman route trial mildly reducing structural premium; no dramatic move).

Strategy moves: fomc_announcement at full activation for the hold narrative going forward; gold_bug restore to maximum; bond_duration_trade re-enter at maximum immediately; momentum_crash_hedge reduce to 10–15%; ai_infra_picks_shovels and ai_mega_ecosystem at maximum — lower discount rate = highest growth-multiple expansion; crypto_ecosystem increase to 70%; warflation_hedge and geopolitical_crisis hold at maximum — Iran-Oman route is independent of FOMC path.

Scenario B: FOMC Hikes + Neutral-to-Hawkish Dot + BoJ Hike (Base Case — 55%)

FOMC hikes 25bp (3.75–4.00%) and the dot plot shows one additional 2026 hike in the median projection (keeping optionality through the December FOMC). Warsh emphasizes data-dependence and avoids committing to a pause. The market interprets the dot as "one more possible" and absorbs the FOMC with moderate pressure (-0.5% to -1.0% on S&P). BoJ hikes Friday as universally expected; USD/JPY stable at 152–155 (differential unchanged). BoE holds at 3.75%. The week ends without a dramatic repricing in any direction — the "fully priced" FOMC resolves without a tail event.

S&P 500 ends the week at 7,550–7,700; VIX 16–20 (FOMC spike Wednesday, BoJ spike Friday, partial resolution); gold $4,280–4,400 (rate headwind maintains); BTC $76,000–79,000; 10Y 4.95–5.05% (at or slightly above the psychological threshold); WTI $94–100 (Iran-Oman route trial week one — tentative commercial operator response).

Strategy moves: fomc_announcement at full activation for the "one more hike" December scenario; momentum_crash_hedge maintain at 55%; gold_bug at 45–55%; vix_spike_buyback active at VIX 18–22 on Wednesday-Friday CB sequence; warflation_hedge at maximum; geopolitical_crisis at maximum; bond_duration_trade exit; ai_infra_picks_shovels at 60%.

Scenario C: FOMC Hikes + Hawkish Dot (Two More 2026 Hikes) AND/OR Iran-Oman Route Fails (25%)

FOMC hikes 25bp but the dot plot's 2026 median shows two additional hikes (December 2026 + March 2027), and Warsh's presser emphasizes that "inflation must fall at sufficient speed" (repeating his Jackson Hole phrase) — the market interprets this as a commitment to further tightening regardless of economic softening. Simultaneously, Iran-Oman route trial collapses on Day 1 (another vessel strike, IRGC challenges to commercial operators, or US objection to the framework): oil spikes back above $103–107, and the dual shock (rate tightening + oil re-escalation) produces stagflation repricing.

S&P 500 falls to 7,450–7,600 (−0.7% to −2.7% from 7,656.98 Friday); Nasdaq −2.0% to −4.0%; VIX spikes to 22–28 on dual central bank + geopolitical shock; 10Y tests 5.10–5.20%; 30Y retests the August 18 multi-decade high near 5.33%. Gold $4,300–4,450 (hot inflation + oil spike = inflation hedge overwhelms the rate headwind at extremes). WTI $100–108 on renewed tanker war escalation. BTC falls −8–12% on broad risk-off (ETF bid absorbs some, but not all, of the de-risk).

Strategy moves: momentum_crash_hedge restore to 70–75% immediately on hawkish dot; vix_spike_buyback entry at VIX 22–25 on the second spike wave (don't buy the first spike; wait for VIX to establish the elevated range); warflation_hedge and geopolitical_crisis at maximum; gold_bug at 75–80% weight — hot inflation + oil spike is the gold thesis at maximum simultaneous alignment; bond_duration_trade exit entirely and consider short-duration positioning; semiconductor_value reduce to 50%; fomc_announcement at full weight for the two-hike scenario; consumer_credit_stress activates at 55% weight — additional hikes into an already-stressed consumer is the classic over-tightening setup. recession_detector activates at 35% — two more projected hikes + oil above $100 + ISM services employment already sub-50 for two consecutive months is the stagflation-into-recession setup.

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The Week Ahead in One Paragraph

With CPI August printing +3.4% YoY (precisely at headline consensus but with core MoM beating at +0.3% vs. +0.2% expected, above Waller's stated disinflation trajectory) and FOMC hike odds now at ~90%, September 16's decision is the most pre-decided Fed meeting since Warsh's hawkish cycle began — the hike itself is priced and the market-moving content is concentrated entirely in the dot plot's 2026–27 rate path and Warsh's presser at 2:30 PM ET; fomc_announcement is at full activation; bond_duration_trade exits entirely into the 10Y at ~4.96% approaching the 5.0% psychological threshold; momentum_crash_hedge increases to 55% weight for the triple-CB event sequence — FOMC Wednesday, BoE Thursday, BoJ Friday (+25bp to 1.25%, all 52 Bloomberg economists forecast unanimously) — the highest policy-event density of Q3.The Iran-Oman Muscat signing Monday is the week's most consequential geopolitical variable — officials convene to formalize a 60-day shipping lane trial (north/south lane structure, no transit fees) that, if operationalized, would be the first formal partial-reopening framework since February 28; warflation_hedge and geopolitical_crisis hold at maximum weight because the Sunday Qeshm vessel strike (1 killed, 4 injured, fire onboard, UKMTO reported) confirms that kinetic operations continue in parallel with negotiations; WTI Sunday ~$96.62 (from $100.05 Friday close) prices the diplomatic signal, not a resolution, and the structural floor from a ~93–95%-closed Strait remains at $93–95 regardless of the Muscat outcome.Oracle's AI cloud quarter — cloud revenue +62% YoY to $11.6B, AI infrastructure +121% to $7.4B, more than $30 billion in new AI contracts signed in a single quarter with demand confirmed to exceed supply, FY27 guided to at least $90B — is the most complete enterprise AI demand validation of the cycle; ai_infra_picks_shovels holds at 60% weight; KOSPI's Samsung/SK Hynix complex is Asia Monday's primary beneficiary (Oracle's AI infra acceleration is the most direct positive HBM demand signal in memory), and Hang Seng tech names benefit from the broader AI enterprise confidence restoration following the Moonshot AI $50B IPO pipeline from the prior week.Three central bank decisions in 72 hours — FOMC Wednesday, BoE Thursday, BoJ Friday — create the highest event-risk density of Q3; if both the Fed and BoJ hike simultaneously as priced, the rate differential is unchanged and USD/JPY holds 153–155 (benign yen path); if Warsh's dot plot projects two additional 2026 hikes while BoJ's Ueda confirms January as the follow-up, the differential narrows and yen carry unwind risk re-emerges with USD/JPY testing 150–152; vix_spike_buyback activates at VIX 18–22 on Wednesday's FOMC decision spike, with BoJ Friday as the second entry window.consumer_credit_stress advances to 35% weight on SHOE's guide-and-miss cascade (−21%), two consecutive ISM services employment sub-50 prints (47.8 in August, sub-50 in July) — the strategy's macro and micro signals are now simultaneous; gold_bug reduces to 45–55% weight pending the dot plot's verdict: a pause-signaling dot sends gold back to $4,450+ as the two-month Warsh-driven real-yield headwind reverses; a hawkish dot sends it toward $4,250 as 10Y breaks above 5.0% with conviction and the dollar bid extends.

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Sources

• BLS Consumer Price Index Summary — August 2026
• CPI inflation report August 2026 — CNBC
• No Letup in Inflation in August as CPI Rises 0.4% — U.S. News
• Stock Market Today Sept. 11, 2026: S&P 500 recovers as inflation, oil report bolster market — TheStreet
• How major US stock indexes fared Friday 9/11/2026 — The Washington Post
• How major US stock indexes fared Friday 9/11/2026 — ABC News
• Weekly Market Recap: September 7–September 11, 2026 — Trading Strategy Guides
• Market Review: September 11, 2026 — Investrade
• Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump Past 60% as Markets Brace for Sept. 16 Decision — BigGo Finance
• FOMC September 2026 Odds for a Rate Hike Surpass 50% — Yahoo Finance
• Next Fed Interest Rate Decision: 16 September 2026 Preview — Cambridge Currencies
• The Odds of a Rate Hike Are Soaring Ahead of the Sept. 16 FOMC Meeting — The Motley Fool
• Week #37 — Market Update for September 7-11, 2026 — Atrani Capital / Substack
• Oracle stock trims gains as AI cloud demand outpaces supply — Yahoo Finance
• ORCL Stock Jumps As AI Cloud Growth Ignites Bullish Reversal — Timothy Sykes
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Oracle, Adobe, RH & more — CNBC
• Adobe Q3 FY2026 slides: strong results, CEO transition announced — Investing.com
• Adobe Just Reported Earnings. Here's What Investors Need to Know. — The Motley Fool
• Vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says, as prospects for U.S.-Iran diplomacy appear elusive — CNBC
• Iran reports commercial vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz — CNN
• Iran, Oman agree on new temporary route in Hormuz — Al Jazeera
• Tehran engages in renewed diplomatic push, touts proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz — CBS News
• BLS Producer Price Index News Release — August 2026 Results
• PPI inflation report August 2026 — CNBC
• Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 11, 2026 — ETF Trends
• Bank of Japan Rate Hike Forecasts Accelerate, Survey Shows Next Move by January — Bloomberg
• Next Bank of Japan Rate Decision: September 17-18, 2026 — Finance Calendar
• Crude Oil Price Today: September 11, 2026 — Forbes Advisor
• Brent Crude Oil — Trading Economics
• Bitcoin and Gold Hit 6-Year Correlation High as ETF Inflows and Macro Data Shape September Markets — Bitcoin Ethereum News
• BTC Price above $77,500 on September 13, 2026 — Decrypt
• Bull Bear Report: Week Of September 11, 2026 — Lance Roberts / Substack
• Gold price today Thursday September 11 2026 — Yahoo Finance
• USD/JPY Historical Data — Investing.com
• US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield — Trading Economics

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Disclaimer

This report is produced for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data cited reflects information available as of the publication time noted above. Market conditions and geopolitical developments may change materially before or during the trading session. Futures and pre-market levels are indicative only and are not guaranteed opening prices. Past performance of any strategy referenced is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.