Consumer discretionary vs staples ratio as credit stress indicator
Consumer Credit Stress (Subprime Proxy)
| Symbol | Action | Vol | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Size | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | BUY | 13% | 8.8% below entry | 3.0% above entry | 13.6% | TVYH |
| GLD | BUY | 23% | 16.1% below entry | 4.8% above entry | 7.4% | TVYH |
| SPY | BUY | 17% | 12.0% below entry | 3.6% above entry | 10.0% | TVYH |
| QQQ | BUY | 22% | 15.2% below entry | 4.6% above entry | 7.9% | TVYH |
| XLY | BUY | 23% | 15.9% below entry | 4.8% above entry | 7.5% | TVYH |
| KRE | BUY | 29% | 20.2% below entry | 6.0% above entry | 5.9% | TVYH |
| HYG | BUY | 5% | 8.4% below entry | 3.0% above entry | 14.3% | TVYH |
This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -23% drawdown to return 124% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.