Saturday, April 11, 2026

Your Saturday morning market coffee. Feet up, portfolio open.

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Week in Review

What a week. If you fell asleep Sunday night and woke up Saturday morning, you'd see the S&P 500 up about 3.6% and think, "nice, calm week." You would be spectacularly wrong.

The Numbers

The Story Arc

Monday (Apr 7): Markets opened cautiously, digesting Pakistan's ceasefire proposal. S&P dipped slightly as traders waited for clarity. The vibe was "we've heard peace rumors before."

Tuesday (Apr 8): BOOM. Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, suspending attacks on Iran. Dow exploded +1,325 points (+2.85%) -- its best day since April 2025. Oil crashed 16% intraday. Cruise lines, airlines, travel stocks surged. Carnival (CCL) popped 11%. Asia and Europe followed overnight with massive rallies (Korea +5.8%, Nikkei +4.95%, Stoxx 600 +3.7%).

Wednesday (Apr 9): Reality check. Iran accused the U.S. of ceasefire violations (Israel's Lebanon strikes, drone overflight, enrichment dispute). Oil snapped back +3%. Equity futures gave back gains. But markets somehow held, closing green again -- S&P +0.62%, Nasdaq +0.83%. The Dow turned positive for 2026 for the first time.

Thursday (Apr 9 close / Apr 10 setup): $1.5T defense budget proposal dominated headlines. CPI anxiety building. TSMC dropped Q1 revenue numbers: $35.7B, up 35% YoY -- a monster. FedEx pilot deal (40% wage increase) signaled labor costs aren't cooling.

Friday (Apr 10): CPI day. The report was a split personality:
- Headline CPI: +0.9% m/m, +3.3% y/y (energy-driven, but actually below the 3.4-3.7% feared)
- Core CPI: +0.2% m/m (cooler than expected -- the number that actually matters)
- The market shrugged. S&P slipped 0.11%, Nasdaq eked out +0.35%. Best week since November preserved.

Biggest Movers

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Strategy Scorecard

Here's how our strategies fared this week. The ceasefire rally plus the split CPI created a fascinating mix of winners and losers.

Winners

Mixed

Losers

MVP of the Week: ai_token_economy (#2)

For the Nth week in a row, AI infrastructure is the hide-out. TSMC's 35% revenue growth and record margins don't care about Iran, CPI, or the Strait of Hormuz. The AI trade is structurally decoupled from geopolitical noise. Composite score: 1.04.

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Forward Look: April 14-18

Next week is the real test. Earnings season begins with a bang, and the Pakistan ceasefire talks will either produce progress or produce chaos. There is no middle ground.

Earnings Calendar (the big ones)

Economic Data

Geopolitical

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Monday Setup

Here's what I'm watching when the bell rings Monday morning.

Scenario A: Pakistan Talks Show Progress

• Oil drops to $88-92. Energy stocks pull back.
• Equity futures gap up +1-2%. Travel, airlines, consumer discretionary surge.
• VIX drops below 17.
• Play: Rotate from energy to tech/growth. ai_token_economy (#2) gets even better with cheaper energy. Take partial profits on defense.

Scenario B: Pakistan Talks Stall or Collapse

• Oil spikes to $105-110+. Energy surges.
• Equity futures gap down 1-3%. Travel/airlines give back this week's gains entirely.
• VIX spikes to 25-30+. Could trigger vix_spike_buyback (#88).
• Play: Add to energy/defense positions. warflation_hedge (#64) and barbell_portfolio (#7) are the plays. Reduce consumer discretionary.

Scenario C: Talks Muddle Along (most likely)

• Markets open flat-to-slightly-down. Focus shifts entirely to Goldman Sachs earnings.
• Oil stays in $93-98 range. Status quo.
• Play: Let earnings drive the tape. Watch GS reaction closely -- if banks beat, the week has legs.

Position Sizing Thoughts

Keep positions at 60-75% of normal size until Pakistan talks produce a clear outcome. The ceasefire is only 3 days old and already strained. Binary weekend risk demands humility.

Goldman Sachs before the bell Monday is the first real earnings catalyst. If GS beats (expected) and guides strong on M&A/IPO pipeline, it sets a positive tone for the entire bank earnings parade Tuesday.

TSMC Wednesday is the week's marquee event for our top strategy. The revenue is already known. What matters: (1) margin guidance, (2) AI infrastructure commentary, (3) any demand weakness signals.

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The Sneaker Market is the S&P 500 in Nikes

A meditation on bubbles, deflation, and the universal human desire to flip things for profit.

There's a market out there that's experienced a 50% crash, where former "blue chips" have lost 60% of their value, where professional traders are exiting in droves, and where the underlying assets are literally sitting on shelves collecting dust.

No, it's not crypto. It's sneakers.

The sneaker resale market -- once a $10 billion juggernaut where teenagers could flip Jordan 1s for 100% margins -- is in a full-blown bear market. And honestly, the parallels to equity markets are uncanny.

The Bull Run (2020-2023): During COVID lockdowns, stimulus checks met limited-edition drops. Sneaker resale was essentially a call option with 100% margins. A pair of Lost-and-Found Jordan 1s that retailed for $180 would sell for $500-600 on StockX within hours. Sound familiar? (See: meme stocks, 2021.)

The Peak Signal: When your Uber driver starts telling you about his sneaker portfolio -- that's the top. When NPR is running stories about "sneaker investing" -- that's the top. (Replace "sneaker" with "NFT" or "SPAC" and the pattern is identical.)

The Crash: By 2024, only 47% of sneaker releases traded above retail on secondary platforms. Those $500 Jordan 1s? Now $200-300. Profit margins collapsed from 100% to 10-25%. Full-time resellers -- the sneaker market's equivalent of day traders -- started taking losses.

What Happened: The same thing that always happens. Supply flooded in. Nike, Adidas, and New Balance all increased production of "limited" releases (turns out "limited" is negotiable when shareholders want growth). Platforms like StockX and GOAT charged higher fees. And the marginal buyer -- the person paying $500 for shoes to wear, not flip -- disappeared as gas prices hit $4+/gallon and rent kept climbing.

The Luxury Pivot: Meanwhile, the broader luxury resale market hit $59 billion in 2025 and keeps growing. The difference? Luxury goods (Hermes bags, vintage Rolexes) have genuine scarcity -- you can't just tell a factory to make more Birkins. Sneaker "scarcity" was always a marketing illusion.

The Market Lesson: Every asset class follows the same cycle: scarcity narrative drives prices up, high prices attract supply, supply kills margins, marginal participants exit, prices correct. Whether it's sneakers, SPACs, or semiconductor stocks, the cycle is the cycle.

The sneaker market is now projected to grow to $30 billion by 2030 -- but that growth will come from the primary market (people buying shoes to wear), not from flipping. The "financialization of everything" era is quietly deflating, one asset class at a time.

Meanwhile, the women's sneaker resale segment grew from 1.6% to 42.7% of the market in eight years. Sometimes the real alpha is in the demographic shift everyone else missed.

Kind of like how our ai_token_economy strategy is the boring, structural winner while everyone else chases ceasefire trades and CPI reactions. The best investments aren't exciting -- they're inevitable.

Now go enjoy your Saturday. The market will still be there Monday.

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Sources:
- CNBC: S&P 500 slips Friday, best week since November
- CNBC: Stock market news April 10
- CNBC: Stock market news April 8
- CNBC: Stock market next week outlook April 13-17
- TheStreet: Stock Market Today Apr 10
- Al Jazeera: Vance arrives in Pakistan for ceasefire talks
- CBS News: Iran ceasefire talks, Hormuz traffic remains low
- NBC News: Vance arrives for peace talks in Pakistan
- CNN: Day 42 of Middle East conflict
- FinancialContent: Energy Shock vs Core Calm CPI
- StockPil: US CPI Inflation Report March 2026
- Schwab: Stocks Rise as Energy Swells Consumer Price Data
- Fortune: Current price of oil April 10 2026
- CNBC: TSMC Q1 record revenue
- Wedbush: $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget
- Analytics Insight: Top-Performing Defense Stocks April 2026
- FinancialContent: JPMorgan Chase Earnings Preview
- FinancialContent: Goldman Sachs Fee Machine
- FinancialContent: TSMC and Netflix Earnings Preview
- Motley Fool: Cameco one of 2026's biggest winners
- Zacks: Cameco surges 200% in a year
- Seeking Alpha: Biggest stock movers Tuesday
- Seeking Alpha: Biggest stock movers Friday
- NPR: Sneaker resale market tanking
- PYMNTS: Luxury resale market tops $59 billion
- Retail Dive: US consumer hitting rough patch
- MarketPulse: Risky weekend ahead - April 10 market wrap
- Wikipedia: 2026 Iran war ceasefire

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Disclaimer

This content is for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice.

• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Backtests use historical data and may not reflect real-world conditions (liquidity, slippage, market impact).
• All strategies tested with simulated capital. No real money was used or is at risk.
• Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
• The authors and contributors accept no responsibility for financial losses from using this information.
• Securities mentioned are not buy/sell recommendations. Do your own due diligence.
• Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Only invest what you can afford to lose.

By using this information, you acknowledge that you understand and accept these risks.