Why Your Childhood Lego Set Beat Gold and the S&P 500

In 2018, three researchers at Russia's Higher School of Economics published a study with a deeply unserious title and a surprisingly serious conclusion. "LEGO: The Toy of Smart Investors." The paper, eventually published in the Journal of Risk Finance, tracked the secondary-market performance of every Lego set sold between 1987 and 2015. The result was difficult to argue with. Average annual returns: 11 percent nominal, 8 percent real. Over the same period, the S&P 500 returned about 9 percent. Gold returned 5 percent. Investment-grade bonds returned 3 to 5 percent. Most professional alternative-asset classes — wine, fine art, vintage cars — returned somewhere in the same neighborhood as bonds.

The plastic toys you stepped on barefoot at 2 a.m. beat almost everything.

The Mechanics of an Accidental Asset Class. Lego sets retire on an aggressive schedule. Most run for 12 to 24 months, then disappear from primary retail forever. The supply curve is therefore not gradually exhausted in the way most consumer goods are; it is sharply guillotined the moment Lego decides to discontinue. From that point on, every adult who suddenly wants to buy a particular set — for nostalgia, for completion, for their kid, for display — must compete with every other adult on the secondary market. The supply is finite and decaying (boxes get crushed, pieces lost, collections sold off). Demand is steady or growing. The math, in retrospect, was inevitable.

Which Sets Actually Made Money. The same researchers found returns vary enormously by theme. Star Wars, Modular Buildings, Architecture, and the fan-designed "Lego Ideas" line consistently produced double-digit returns. Generic City sets produced almost nothing. The Ultimate Collector's Series Millennium Falcon (set 10179, retired 2010) was the most-cited outlier — released at $499, it traded for $3,500-plus within a few years. The 2018 update (set 75192) similarly held value above retail within months.

In the most extreme cases, individual sets have appreciated more than 600 percent in a single year. These are typically promotional sets — convention exclusives, limited regional drops, employee giveaways — where the supply was structurally tiny to begin with. Most modern Lego sets, by contrast, never appreciate at all. They either sit at retail forever or quietly decline.

The Infrastructure Was Already There. What made Lego work as an asset class wasn't just scarcity. It was that adult fans of Lego (the AfoL community, in collector slang) had already built the marketplace before any finance person noticed. BrickLink, founded in 2000, became the eBay of Lego — a global secondary market with tens of thousands of sellers, granular per-piece pricing, and decades of price history. Lego the company eventually noticed: in 2019, it acquired BrickLink. Other platforms — eBay, StockX, BrickEconomy, BrickPicker — round out an ecosystem that probably handles half a billion dollars in secondary transactions per year.

When researchers in 2022 looked at fees and frictions, they found that real returns net of platform fees, storage, and search costs were closer to 6.4 percent annually — still better than bonds, but a long way from the 11 percent gross headline. The conclusion: Lego is a real asset class, but it's a working asset class, not a passive one. You have to know what to buy, when to sell, where to list, and how to store.

Why Finance Pros Are Slowly Showing Up. Several alternative-investment platforms now sometimes include rare Lego sets in their portfolios alongside watches, sneakers, and trading cards. Specialized auction houses have added Lego sections. The market is small relative to fine art ($65 billion annually) but is no longer fringe. The Institutional Investor magazine ran a feature in 2023 with the unironic title "The Hot New Alternative Investment: Lego?"

There are some nuances that finance professionals are still adjusting to. Lego sets do not generate cash flow. They are not divisible — you cannot buy half a Star Wars set. They require physical storage, ideally in stable temperature and humidity. They are vulnerable to box damage; an opened box loses 30 to 50 percent of value, a damaged box even more. Liquidity is poor compared to public equities — selling rare sets quickly often means accepting a 15 to 20 percent discount to "fair" market price.

The Liquidity Trap. This is the catch most retail enthusiasts miss. Lego "outperforms the S&P 500" only on paper. In practice, an investor trying to liquidate a $50,000 collection in three weeks would lose meaningfully more than an investor trying to liquidate a $50,000 stock portfolio. The asset class works for patient holders. It does not work for anyone who needs the cash quickly.

The Evergreen Lesson. What's interesting about Lego as an asset class isn't really Lego. It's that Lego exhibits all the structural features finance theory associates with great long-term investments — durable demand, deliberate scarcity, low correlation with public markets, multi-generational appeal — without anyone having designed it that way. The Danish company that makes the bricks didn't set out to create a $500-million-a-year secondary market. It happened because the underlying product is simply very good and very scarce, and over time, that combination compounds.

There is a finance-philosophy nugget buried here, and it has nothing to do with Lego specifically. The most reliably appreciating assets in the world tend to share the same structural traits: limited supply, durable demand, no carry costs, anti-inflationary pricing, and a multi-decade time horizon. Whether the asset is a Birkin bag, a vintage Rolex, a Manhattan brownstone, a rare baseball card, or a Lucasfilm-licensed plastic spaceship doesn't actually matter. The math is the same.

Your seven-year-old probably has more of this asset class than your IRA does.

Now go enjoy your Saturday. And maybe check what's in the attic.

Sources:
- SSRN: LEGO — The Toy of Smart Investors (Dobrynskaya & Kishilova, 2018)
- The Hill: Surprising new study finds investing in Legos better than gold, stocks, bonds and art
- Institutional Investor: The Hot New Alternative Investment: Lego?
- BrickFact: Investment comparison with stocks and gold
- BlockApps: Understanding LEGO Collecting as an Alternative Investment
- Bright My Bricks: Rare LEGO Sets Investment Guide 2025