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Wartime Portfolio

Anti-fragile: defense + energy + gold. Outperforms 8.5% during conflicts

Wartime Portfolio

3Y
Total Return
+2.9%
3Y
Sharpe Ratio
-0.41
3Y
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
3Y
Win Rate
53.1%
3Y
Alpha
-22.2%
3Y
Comp. Score *
0.02
Risk Parameters
Max Allocation0.0%
Stop Loss10.2%
Take Profit10.0%
Max DD Tolerance10.2%
Rebalanceweekly
Execution Guidance
Order TypeLimit
Entry RuleBuy on policy announcement day or day after. Backlogs are locked — dips are gifts.
TimingSAFE TO BUY. *
ScalingEnter 60% immediately on catalyst, add 40% if pullback within 2 weeks.
Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing
SymbolActionVol Stop LossTake ProfitSizeLinks
DBA BUY 13% 5.7% below entry 5.6% above entry 0.0% TVYH
XOM BUY 24% 10.1% below entry 9.9% above entry 0.0% TVYH
XLE BUY 23% 9.8% below entry 9.5% above entry 0.0% TVYH
DVN BUY 37% 15.8% below entry 15.4% above entry 0.0% TVYH
LHX BUY 23% 10.0% below entry 9.7% above entry 0.0% TVYH
ITA BUY 21% 9.2% below entry 9.0% above entry 0.0% TVYH
LMT BUY 25% 10.8% below entry 10.5% above entry 0.0% TVYH
NOC BUY 26% 11.0% below entry 10.8% above entry 0.0% TVYH
SLV BUY 46% 20.0% below entry 19.5% above entry 0.0% TVYH
RTX BUY 25% 10.7% below entry 10.5% above entry 0.0% TVYH
GLD BUY 23% 9.9% below entry 9.6% above entry 0.0% TVYH
▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -24% drawdown to return 20% long-term. - Exit rule: Exit when conflict de-escalates AND commodity premiums normalize.

Avg 5Y Return
13.1%
Avg 5Y Sharpe
-0.13
10Y Return
20.1%
10Y Sharpe
-0.2
HODL Composite
0.05
Consistency
32%
Suitable for passive
No