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Unemployment Momentum

Staffing stock weakness as unemployment proxy, rotate to defensives

Unemployment Claims Momentum

3Y
Total Return
+21.5%
3Y
Sharpe Ratio
0.34
3Y
Max Drawdown
-11.8%
3Y
Win Rate
54.1%
3Y
Alpha
-16.4%
3Y
Comp. Score *
0.27
Risk Parameters
Max Allocation6.7%
Stop Loss9.4%
Take Profit12.0%
Max DD Tolerance11.8%
Rebalanceweekly
Execution Guidance
Order TypeLimit
Entry RuleBuy on RSI pullback to 40-50 in confirmed uptrend. Never chase.
TimingSAFE TO BUY. *
ScalingEnter 50% initial, add 25% on first pullback, final 25% on trend confirmation.
Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing
SymbolActionVol Stop LossTake ProfitSizeLinks
TLT BUY 13% 5.0% below entry 6.3% above entry 12.7% TVYH
XLP BUY 13% 5.1% below entry 6.5% above entry 12.3% TVYH
GLD BUY 23% 9.1% below entry 11.5% above entry 7.0% TVYH
XLV BUY 15% 6.1% below entry 7.7% above entry 10.4% TVYH
XLU BUY 16% 6.2% below entry 7.9% above entry 10.2% TVYH
VNQ BUY 15% 6.0% below entry 7.6% above entry 10.6% TVYH
IEF BUY 6% 4.7% below entry 6.0% above entry 13.4% TVYH
SPY BUY 17% 6.8% below entry 8.6% above entry 9.4% TVYH
▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -26% drawdown to return 81% long-term. - Exit rule: Exit if 3+ holdings break below their long-term trend simultaneously.

Avg 5Y Return
44.8%
Avg 5Y Sharpe
0.35
10Y Return
80.9%
10Y Sharpe
0.24
HODL Composite
0.57
Consistency
71%
Suitable for passive
No