Treasury Safe

Flight to quality: long-duration bonds when recession signals fire

Total Return

+19.4%

Sharpe Ratio

0.32

Max Drawdown

-9.9%

Win Rate

53.3%

Alpha

-59.3%

Comp. Score *

0.01

Risk Parameters

Max Allocation7.6%

Stop Loss15.0%

Take Profit5.0%

Max DD Tolerance9.9%

Rebalanceweekly

Execution Guidance

Order TypeLimit

Entry RuleAlways hold some. Add more when SPY breaks below SMA200.

TimingSAFE TO BUY. *

ScalingMaintain 5-15% allocation. Add during fear, trim during euphoria.

Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing

Symbol	Action	Vol	Stop Loss	Take Profit	Size	Links
TLT	BUY	12%	7.6% below entry	3.0% above entry	15.0%	TV YH
IEF	BUY	6%	7.5% below entry	3.0% above entry	15.3%	TV YH
GLD	BUY	23%	14.7% below entry	4.9% above entry	7.8%	TV YH
TIP	BUY	4%	7.5% below entry	3.0% above entry	15.3%	TV YH
SHY	BUY	2%	7.5% below entry	3.0% above entry	15.3%	TV YH