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Small Cap Value Rotation

Small caps at 50-year cheap: AVUV + momentum picks, 18% YTD 2026

Small Cap Value Rotation

3Y
Total Return
+22.2%
3Y
Sharpe Ratio
0.25
3Y
Max Drawdown
-27.5%
3Y
Win Rate
50.6%
3Y
Alpha
-16.2%
3Y
Comp. Score *
0.06
Risk Parameters
Max Allocation4.0%
Stop Loss30.0%
Take Profit10.0%
Max DD Tolerance27.5%
Rebalanceweekly
Execution Guidance
Order TypeLimit
Entry RuleBuy below SMA200 or at RSI < 35. Value = patience. Don't rush.
TimingSAFE TO BUY. *
ScalingEnter in 3 tranches over 4-6 weeks as price confirms bottom.
Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing
SymbolActionVol Stop LossTake ProfitSizeLinks
VBR BUY 19% 24.1% below entry 8.0% above entry 4.9% TVYH
IWM BUY 22% 28.1% below entry 9.4% above entry 4.2% TVYH
IWN BUY 21% 26.8% below entry 8.9% above entry 4.4% TVYH
AVUV BUY 23% 28.4% below entry 9.5% above entry 4.2% TVYH
DFSV BUY 22% 28.2% below entry 9.4% above entry 4.2% TVYH
GRC BUY 30% 38.4% below entry 12.8% above entry 3.1% TVYH
SAIA BUY 57% 40.0% below entry 23.9% above entry 1.7% TVYH
DECK BUY 50% 40.0% below entry 20.8% above entry 1.9% TVYH
▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy is suitable for passive investing. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -38% drawdown to return 188% long-term. - Exit rule: Exit if free cash flow turns negative for 2 quarters — value trap confirmed.

Avg 5Y Return
98.6%
Avg 5Y Sharpe
0.59
10Y Return
188.0%
10Y Sharpe
0.47
HODL Composite
0.59
Consistency
78%
Suitable for passive
Yes