Presidential Cycle

Year 3 strongest (+13.5% avg). Adjust exposure by cycle year

Presidential Cycle

Total Return

+95.0%

Sharpe Ratio

1.56

Max Drawdown

-11.2%

Win Rate

56.9%

Alpha

+1.9%

Comp. Score *

0.41

Risk Parameters

Max Allocation15.9%

Stop Loss11.2%

Take Profit12.5%

Max DD Tolerance11.2%

Rebalanceweekly

Execution Guidance

Order TypeLimit

Entry RuleBuy on policy announcement day or day after. Backlogs are locked — dips are gifts.

TimingSAFE TO BUY. *

ScalingEnter 60% immediately on catalyst, add 40% if pullback within 2 weeks.

Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing

Symbol	Action	Vol	Stop Loss	Take Profit	Size	Links
QQQ	BUY	22%	10.2% below entry	11.4% above entry	17.5%	TV YH
SPY	BUY	17%	8.0% below entry	9.0% above entry	22.2%	TV YH
TLT	BUY	13%	5.9% below entry	6.6% above entry	30.2%	TV YH
GLD	BUY	23%	10.8% below entry	12.0% above entry	16.6%	TV YH
IWM	BUY	22%	10.5% below entry	11.7% above entry	17.0%	TV YH

▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy is suitable for passive investing. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -15% drawdown to return 255% long-term. - Exit rule: Follow the cycle. Year 3 = max growth, Year 2 = defensive.

Avg 5Y Return

104.2%

Avg 5Y Sharpe

0.93

10Y Return

254.6%

10Y Sharpe

0.82

HODL Composite

0.91

Consistency

89%

Suitable for passive

Yes