Political uncertainty→defensive, stability→risk-on (Polymarket proxy)
Polymarket Signal (Uncertainty Proxy)
| Symbol | Action | Vol | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Size | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | BUY | 13% | 6.0% below entry | 3.2% above entry | 21.1% | TVYH |
| GLD | BUY | 23% | 11.0% below entry | 5.9% above entry | 11.5% | TVYH |
| SPY | BUY | 17% | 8.2% below entry | 4.4% above entry | 15.5% | TVYH |
| QQQ | BUY | 22% | 10.4% below entry | 5.6% above entry | 12.2% | TVYH |
This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -19% drawdown to return 110% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.