WINNING

Pawn Counter Cyclical

Pawn lenders and alternative finance — true counter-cyclical plays

Pawn demand surges during recessions when consumer credit tightens. Perfect portfolio hedge — FCFS gross profit/store rose 50% during 2008-2012

Total Return

+57.9%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Max Drawdown

-8.5%

Win Rate

52.1%

Alpha

-49.0%

Comp. Score *

0.33

Risk Parameters

Max Allocation11.3%

Stop Loss8.5%

Take Profit8.2%

Max DD Tolerance8.5%

Rebalancemonthly

Execution Guidance

Order TypeLimit

Entry RuleBuy 0.5% below market in uptrend.

TimingSAFE TO BUY. *

ScalingEnter in 3 tranches over 1-2 weeks.

Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing

Symbol	Action	Vol	Stop Loss	Take Profit	Size	Links
FCFS	BUY	27%	9.5% below entry	9.2% above entry	10.1%	TV YH
EZPW	BUY	31%	11.0% below entry	10.6% above entry	8.8%	TV YH
PRDO	BUY	35%	12.5% below entry	12.1% above entry	7.7%	TV YH

▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy is suitable for passive investing. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from 33% drawdown to deliver positive long-term returns. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.

Avg 5Y Return

56.1%

Avg 5Y Sharpe

0.41

10Y Return

124.8%

10Y Sharpe

0.37

HODL Composite

0.38

Consistency

86%

Suitable for passive

Yes