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Late Cycle Bubble Hedge

Dynamic value/growth rotation based on AI froth detection

Late-Cycle Bubble Hedge

3Y
Total Return
+108.3%
3Y
Sharpe Ratio
1.31
3Y
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
3Y
Win Rate
54.5%
3Y
Alpha
+4.7%
3Y
Comp. Score *
0.41
Risk Parameters
Max Allocation13.1%
Stop Loss15.0%
Take Profit11.1%
Max DD Tolerance18.5%
Rebalanceweekly
Execution Guidance
Order TypeLimit
Entry RuleAlways hold some. Add more when SPY breaks below SMA200.
TimingSAFE TO BUY. *
ScalingMaintain 5-15% allocation. Add during fear, trim during euphoria.
Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing
SymbolActionVol Stop LossTake ProfitSizeLinks
NVDA BUY 49% 30.6% below entry 22.7% above entry 6.4% TVYH
AVGO BUY 55% 34.6% below entry 25.7% above entry 5.7% TVYH
QQQ BUY 22% 13.7% below entry 10.1% above entry 14.3% TVYH
MSFT BUY 24% 15.3% below entry 11.4% above entry 12.8% TVYH
GOOGL BUY 30% 18.8% below entry 14.0% above entry 10.4% TVYH
AMD BUY 57% 35.7% below entry 26.5% above entry 5.5% TVYH
AMZN BUY 33% 20.7% below entry 15.4% above entry 9.4% TVYH
AAPL BUY 29% 18.0% below entry 13.4% above entry 10.9% TVYH
▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy is suitable for passive investing. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -19% drawdown to return 191% long-term. - Exit rule: This IS the exit strategy — it rotates to value when growth gets frothy.

Avg 5Y Return
78.5%
Avg 5Y Sharpe
0.65
10Y Return
190.7%
10Y Sharpe
0.61
HODL Composite
2.15
Consistency
89%
Suitable for passive
Yes