Election Cycle Rotation

Sector rotation by presidential cycle year. Year 3 = max growth

Total Return

+24.9%

Sharpe Ratio

0.48

Max Drawdown

-7.3%

Win Rate

54.9%

Alpha

-15.4%

Comp. Score *

0.05

Risk Parameters

Max Allocation8.3%

Stop Loss10.0%

Take Profit10.0%

Max DD Tolerance7.3%

Rebalanceweekly

Execution Guidance

Order TypeLimit

Entry RuleBuy on policy announcement day or day after. Backlogs are locked — dips are gifts.

TimingSAFE TO BUY. *

ScalingEnter 60% immediately on catalyst, add 40% if pullback within 2 weeks.

Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing

Symbol	Action	Vol	Stop Loss	Take Profit	Size	Links
TLT	BUY	13%	5.3% below entry	5.3% above entry	15.8%	TV YH
GLD	BUY	23%	9.6% below entry	9.6% above entry	8.6%	TV YH
XLY	BUY	23%	9.5% below entry	9.5% above entry	8.8%	TV YH
XLF	BUY	18%	7.6% below entry	7.6% above entry	11.0%	TV YH

▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -15% drawdown to return 67% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.

Avg 5Y Return

36.4%

Avg 5Y Sharpe

0.32

10Y Return

67.1%

10Y Sharpe

0.19

HODL Composite

0.24

Consistency

78%

Suitable for passive