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Economic Indicators

Non-traditional indicators: fashion=confidence, underwear=recession, copper=industrial

Economic Indicator Proxy (Hemline/BigMac/Lipstick)

3Y
Total Return
+14.6%
3Y
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
3Y
Max Drawdown
-9.8%
3Y
Win Rate
51.3%
3Y
Alpha
-18.5%
3Y
Comp. Score *
0.03
Risk Parameters
Max Allocation4.5%
Stop Loss9.8%
Take Profit5.0%
Max DD Tolerance9.8%
Rebalanceweekly
Execution Guidance
Order TypeLimit
Entry RuleBuy 0.5% below market in uptrend.
TimingSAFE TO BUY. *
ScalingEnter in 3 tranches over 1-2 weeks.
Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing
SymbolActionVol Stop LossTake ProfitSizeLinks
FCX BUY 45% 18.7% below entry 9.5% above entry 2.4% TVYH
MCD BUY 18% 7.5% below entry 3.8% above entry 5.9% TVYH
RL BUY 37% 15.1% below entry 7.7% above entry 2.9% TVYH
PKG BUY 25% 10.5% below entry 5.3% above entry 4.2% TVYH
▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -20% drawdown to return 62% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.

Avg 5Y Return
31.6%
Avg 5Y Sharpe
0.2
10Y Return
62.3%
10Y Sharpe
0.14
HODL Composite
0.20
Consistency
75%
Suitable for passive
No