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Constellation Contrarian

STZ 49.8% DCF discount, EFX 34%, NKE permanent moat — most mispriced wide-moat stocks

Constellation Contrarian (Max DCF Discount)

3Y
Total Return
-1.9%
3Y
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
3Y
Max Drawdown
-26.5%
3Y
Win Rate
48.9%
3Y
Alpha
-23.8%
3Y
Comp. Score *
-0.00
Risk Parameters
Max Allocation0.0%
Stop Loss30.0%
Take Profit10.0%
Max DD Tolerance26.5%
Rebalanceweekly
Execution Guidance
Order TypeLimit
Entry RuleBuy below SMA200 or at RSI < 35. Value = patience. Don't rush.
TimingSAFE TO BUY. *
ScalingEnter in 3 tranches over 4-6 weeks as price confirms bottom.
Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing
SymbolActionVol Stop LossTake ProfitSizeLinks
LULU BUY 46% 40.0% below entry 19.3% above entry 0.0% TVYH
NKE BUY 40% 40.0% below entry 17.0% above entry 0.0% TVYH
EFX BUY 35% 40.0% below entry 14.5% above entry 0.0% TVYH
SAM BUY 32% 39.7% below entry 13.2% above entry 0.0% TVYH
DEO BUY 29% 36.5% below entry 12.2% above entry 0.0% TVYH
BUD BUY 24% 29.9% below entry 10.0% above entry 0.0% TVYH
PVH BUY 46% 40.0% below entry 19.4% above entry 0.0% TVYH
MNST BUY 24% 30.7% below entry 10.2% above entry 0.0% TVYH
STZ BUY 30% 37.5% below entry 12.5% above entry 0.0% TVYH
▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy has moderate long-term potential but requires monitoring. - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -40% drawdown to return 63% long-term. - Exit rule: Review annually. Exit if strategy underperforms its benchmark for 3 consecutive years.

Avg 5Y Return
33.5%
Avg 5Y Sharpe
0.18
10Y Return
62.7%
10Y Sharpe
0.14
HODL Composite
0.17
Consistency
60%
Suitable for passive
No