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Beaten Down Staples

Consumer staples oversold on GLP-1 fears — buy the overreaction, collect dividends

Beaten Down Staples (GLP-1 Fear) 3Y

3Y
Total Return
+17.0%
3Y
Sharpe Ratio
0.19
3Y
Max Drawdown
-11.6%
3Y
Win Rate
48.1%
3Y
Alpha
-3.3%
3Y
Comp. Score *
0.03
Risk Parameters
Max Allocation5.4%
Stop Loss13.9%
Take Profit5.0%
Max DD Tolerance11.6%
Rebalanceweekly
Execution Guidance
Order TypeLimit
Entry Rule0.5% below current price for buys
TimingSAFE TO BUY. *
ScalingEnter in 3 tranches over 1-2 weeks to average in
Positions — Vol-Adjusted Sizing
SymbolActionVol Stop LossTake ProfitSizeLinks
MDLZ BUY 22% 12.6% below entry 4.5% above entry 6.0% TVYH
▶ For Passive Investors (Buy & Hold)

This strategy is suitable for passive investing. It has shown consistent returns across multiple time horizons. Entry: Buy the recommended positions at any time. Use the position sizes above as your target allocation. Rebalance: Check quarterly. If any position has drifted more than 5% from target, rebalance back. Exit rules: - Take profit: Rebalance when any position exceeds 2x its target weight. Trim back to target, redeploy to underweight positions. - Stop loss: NO price-based stop loss. This strategy recovered from -24% drawdown to return 116% over the long term. Stopping out would have locked in losses. - Exit rule: Exit if GLP-1 drug adoption exceeds 15% of US adult population — at that point the selloff is justified, not overreaction.

Avg 5Y Return
55.0%
Avg 5Y Sharpe
0.47
Avg 5Y Max DD
-20.5%
10Y Return (2015-2024)
116.2%
10Y Sharpe
0.42
10Y Max DD
-24.2%
HODL Composite
0.36
Windows Tested
28
Consistency
78%